FXUS62 KMHX 040920 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 420 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest through Sunday bringing cold but dry conditions. A low pressure system system impacts ENC Monday into Monday night bringing unsettled weather to the area. Another surge of cold, dry conditions develops Tuesday through late week as Arctic high pressure builds back into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday... KEY POINTS: - Strong wind gusts continue early this morning, especially along the coast with breezy conditions persisting throughout the day. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will bring fire weather concerns across much of the region. - Temperatures will be well below normal. Shortwave energy moving through a broad upper trough across the eastern CONUS is pushing offshore early this morning and skies have become clear across the region. Strong CAA continues to bring gusty NW winds this morning with gusts around 20-30 mph inland up to 35-45 mph along the coast. Winds will diminish after 4-5 am as CAA begins to wane but daytime mixing will continue to bring gusts around 20-30 mph through the afternoon, highest along the coast. Will continue the wind advisory for the OBX through 7 am but may drop early as conditions warrant. The gusty winds combined with low RH and dry conditions will bring increased fire weather concerns today. See FIRE WEATHER section for more information. Temps today will be around 15 degrees below normal with highs expected to be around 40. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build into the area tonight with clear skies prevailing. Inland areas are expected to decouple fairly quickly this evening bringing excellent radiational cooling conditions. With dew point temps in the single digits to teens today expect temps to out perform guidance and continue to advertise lows a few degrees below MOS guidance and several degrees below blended guidance. Expect lows in the lower 20s inland with upper teens in the typically colder locations. NW winds expected to continue to gust around 20-25 mph along much of the coast and will see lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 AM Sat... KEY POINTS: - Rainy and mild Monday. - Well below normal temperatures and likely dry conditions Tuesday through the rest of next week. Sunday through Sunday Night... Chilly and very dry conditions expected through the day. RH's will be around 20% in the afternoon, but light winds will preclude fire wx conditions. 1000-850MB thicknesses suggest highs will be in the 40s area-wide (low 40s northeast to upper 40s sw and Crystal Coast). Sunday night a warm front lifts through the region from south to north. Along and ahead of the warm front, temps will be chilly, in the mid 30s. While we will be pretty dry ahead of the warm front, evaporative cooling with any precip falling through a column with uniform wet bulb temps near 0C per GEMreg and NAM12 sounding analysis. Long story short, if any precip can fall through a dry sfc to 850mb layer, some sleet pellets may mix in along with the predominant p-type of rain. No impacts will occur and only introduced sleet as a novelty in case some precip does in fact fall Sun night. Any rain amts will be quite light overnight, only a tenth or so at most. Monday... ENC will be entrenched in the warm sector, as warm front will have lifted through in anticipation of approaching cold front and low pres area. Despite the increased forcing ahead of the low, PWATs around 1" don't support and no instability do not support any heavy rain, and rainfall totals Sunday night into Monday should generally remain a quarter to half inch for most. Highs will be mild, in the low/mid 50s north, to the low 60s south. Mon afternoon will see a decrease in rain from w to e, pushing off the OBX by Mon evening. Winds switch to the nw and CAA ensues Mon evening. A stray flake or two may mix in with the rain acrs the nrn/nern zones Mon evening, but again, no impacts will occur as dry air by then is quickly overtaking the moisture. Temps will reach the 20s inland with low 30s coast for Mon night lows. Tuesday through Friday... An arctic air mass supported by anomalously low 500-1000mb thicknesses will settle over the region. Wednesday- Friday in particular look to be very cold, and will bear watching over the upcoming week for cold weather advisory products, as apparent temps tumble through the teens for Thu and Fri morning. We are watching the subtropical jet for activity in the Fri through early Sat time frame, as the 04/00Z GFS cont to indicate a weak low traversing the srn US this period. To some degree, the EC AIFS is hinting at a weak system as well. The ECM operation and it's respective ensemble mean, as well as the CMC and UKMET cont to be mostly dry, with just cold and dry for ENC, so any wintry wx chances are very low attm late week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period as Arctic high pressure builds across rtes bringing mainly clear skies. NW winds will gust to around 15-25 kt through this afternoon, except along the coast where winds will gust to around 30-40 kt early this morning and around 25-30 kt through the remainder of the day. Winds will decouple inland tonight bringing light winds, however winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kt along the coast. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 AM Sat...VFR expected Sunday. Monday a low pressure system will bring sub-VFR conditions and periods of rain for ENC. VFR returns behind the departing rain Mon night through at least mid week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Sat...Strong CAA continues across the waters early this morning as Arctic high pressure is building in from the NW. Currently seeing NW winds around 25-30 kt with gusts around 35-40 kt across most of the water, except the inland rivers where winds are a bit less, around 15-20 kt with gusts around 25-30 kt. These winds are expected to continue to around 4-5 am, then gradually diminish throughout the day. A slight surge will redevelop this evening but is expected to remain around 25 kt or less. Seas currently around 6-9 ft across most of the coastal waters except near shore where offshore winds are keeping seas a bit lower. Seas will gradually diminish through the short term. Will continue Gale Warning for all but the inland rivers through 12z. SCA conditions expected to continue across most waters through tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Sub SCA conditions expected on Sunday, though it will be short lived. On Monday, inc swrly winds for the waters esp south of Cape Hatteras will lead to a period gale force winds. To the north, the gradient will be much lighter and gales not expected. On Monday night, cold front moves offshore and winds turn nwrly and gust to 30 kt on the sounds and rivers, with gale force winds possible for most of the coastal waters. Forecast max wave heights Monday are in the 8-12 ft range, possibly higher for a time over the outer waters that are entrenched in the gulf stream. Elevated seas will continue on Tue as gusty nwrly winds expected. Wed will finally see an improvement in marine conditions as high pressure builds into the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 215 AM Saturday...Arctic high pressure building into the area will bring breezy conditions along with a cold and dry airmass across the region today. Northwest winds around 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph and relative humidity dropping to around 25-35 percent this afternoon will bring an increased fire danger across much of the ENC coastal plain, especially as most of the region remains in a moderate drought. Will continue the IFD statement from the coastal plain to the Pamlico Sound. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-135-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...SK/TL MARINE...SK/TL FIRE WEATHER...MHX