FXUS63 KEAX 090455 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1055 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chilly night ahead with temperatures in the single digits. This brings another morning of potential refreezing of area roadways. - Snow totals have increased for Thursday evening into Friday morning. Several uncertainties remain, but most areas are looking to receive at least 0.5" of snow with the KC metro looking are around 1- 2" and points south of I-70 looking to receive 1"-3". - Light snow and limited on top of existing slick may create hazardous travel Thursday evening into Friday morning. - Another short wave of light accumulating snow is possible Sunday for north central MO. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 High pressure and northwest flow continue to dominate the region yielding clear skies and cold temperatures. Cold air advection into the area is counteracting solar heating keeping highs in the upper teens to low 20s today. The most notable feature in the pattern is the strong upper level low across the SW CONUS which is bringing powerful downslope winds across southern CA exacerbating devastating wildfires in that region. This low starts marching eastward thanks to a push from another elongated trough extending out of interior Canada. These two features become crucial to our snow chances tomorrow evening. As the elongated trough migrates across the central CONUS, winds turn southerly lifting temperatures to around freezing. Strong upper level divergence aloft quickly develops a leeward trough across west TX Thursday afternoon. Recent model runs have made a significant shift in the forecast. Multiple solutions show increased lift across the cold front of the elongated trough. Counter-clockwise flow around the low meets the eastward moving cold front creating an enhanced area of lift across central MO. While this has been a focus of snow development over previous model run, this suite including multiple hi-res CAM models show more development post frontal. This looks to create higher snow accumulations than previously forecasted. There remain several uncertainties as model vertical profiles continue to show some dry layers which could hamper dendrite growth. Lower level saturation could create some pockets of light freezing rain. Ensemble probabilities have increased potential snow totals showing 60%-80% chances for exceeding 1 inch of snow for areas south of US-50 with 40%-50% chances of exceeding 2 inches for areas of Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued in anticipation of these snow totals from 5PM Thursday through 9AM Friday. There is a chance upon updated forecast data and increased confidence that this advisory may have to be adjusted in time and space possibly to include the KC Metro and areas a bit north of I- 70. Impacts would normally be relatively minor with generally light snow and expected visibility impacts; however, the antecedent ice and snow across the area may exaggerate hazards. Another shortwave looks to pass through the area Sunday which may bring another opportunity for minor snow across the area. Broad guidance suggests small bands of snow along a line from KC to Kirksville with further light snow across the MO/IA border. At the moment, totals look very light with the most aggressive models still under 0.5". Long term guidance continues the cold pattern through the forecast period. The upper level pattern remains active with chances for multiple waves through next week. Optimistically, way far out there guidance suggests the polar jet lifting back north opening up the possibilities for 40s returning in the 8-10 day outlook. We will have to see if that persists. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Patchy fog remains possible through the overnight, generally favored in low lying areas. Light southwest winds will remain through the daylight hours tomorrow, with MVFR and light snow expected south of highway 36 Thursday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ043>046-053-054. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday for KSZ057-060. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...BT