FXUS63 KEAX 091114 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 514 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significantly increased chances for snow late Thursday into Friday across the area. Highest snow totals are expected to range from 1-3 inches mainly for counties south of I-70. - Near-freezing high temperatures expected today; roughly 8-15 degrees warmer than yesterday. - Slight chance for snow flurries Sunday mainly for counties close to the MO/IA border. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 The surface high that has been the main driver of our weather over the past couple of days has shifted to the southeast of our area orienting our winds out of the south while keeping them fairly light. Southerly winds and limited cloud cover will result in warmer temperatures with highs today expected to hover around the mid 30s across the area (which is 8-15 degrees warmer than yesterday). Our focus then shifts to an elongated trough extending from Manitoba down into Baja California. A stagnant cut-off low over Baja California is expected to re-enter the flow with the help of the elongated trough tracking to the east-northeast. As a result, a surface low will develop over eastern TX during the day today and move to the northeast over the southeast US. Increased moisture transport and broadscale lift associated with the system will result in a very likely chance (85%-95%) for snowfall mainly for southern regions of our forecast area. A winter weather advisory has been issued for counties along and south of I-70 and will be in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM Friday. Snow accumulations for counties south of I-70 are expected to range from 1-3 inches with areas further south of I-70 seeing the higher end of that range. Areas along and north of I-70 will likely see a dusting to 1 inch. Model trends have been increasing snow totals as we near the event. I would not be surprised if areas along I-70 see pockets of 2-3 inch snowfalls. There may be a few patches of freezing drizzle if we can get drier air in the DGZ and more saturation near the surface, however, chances seem to be decreasing with each newer model run. The potential impacts of this event are increased due to the recent snowfall and persistently cold temperatures still in place across most of the area further exaggerating hazards. High temperatures for Friday remain near freezing across the area with low temperatures ranging from the single digits into the mid teens. Skipping to Sunday, another system moves just to the north of the area giving areas along the MO/IA border a slight chance (less than 10%) for flurries. At this time, the brunt of the snowfall is expected well to the north out of our CWA. LREF trends have become slightly more bullish however, the 00Z model run is only suggesting a 20%-30% chance for measurable snow. Long-term guidance proposes continued below normal temperatures through the start of next week. Ridging builds into the area for the second half of next week potentially reducing precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 Ongoing VFR conditions are expected to last through this evening. Snow is expected to develop later tonight into early Friday morning reducing visibilities and lowering ceilings. The snow is anticipated to last through the end of the TAF period for all terminals except KSTJ. With crux of the system impacting mostly southern portions of the CWA, conditions are expected to improve sooner at KSTJ. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Friday for KSZ057-060-105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier