FXUS63 KEAX 092032 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 232 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Light snowfall moving into the area this evening, ending by Friday morning. Amounts generally 1-3 inches south of I-70. -Cold temperatures return for the start of the work week with lows near the single digits. -Minor snowfall possible Saturday night and Sunday in northern Missouri. Impacts look minimal at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 Our main weather driver today is a broad positively tilted trough that is expected to travel the Central US this afternoon into Friday morning. With this trough a nearly cut off low has developed over the southern United States that will track toward southern Missouri today. In addition, a shortwave will track across the northern Plains sending a frontal boundary through our area overnight. As both these features move toward our area, expect graduall saturation of the column as moisture slides to the north. By this evening expect improved saturation and the start of light snow moving in from the south and west. Our area generally remain north of most significant impacts from this system, but regardless, any snow may cause travel impacts with lingering effects from this past weekend system. As far as amounts go, confidence is fairly high that most will stay below 4 inches, with the far south seeing highest potential for around 3 inches or slightly more. NBM probabilities show only a 15-20% chance of greater than 3 inches south of 1-70. Our extreme south (Butler to Clinton) has a slightly high chance of 3 inches (40-60%). The chance for seeing 4 inches anywhere in the area is less than 10% according to the NBM. Amounts decrease moving north with northern Kansas City looking 1-2". Southern parts of the metro may see up to 3 inches (15-25% probability). The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded a few counties to the north to account for a slight northward shift along with increased moisture leading to slightly higher snowfall amounts compared to previous forecasts. The advisory is in effect from 5pm this evening trough 9am Friday. Heaviest snowfall is expected from 8pm to 2am. Snowfall should come to an end around sunrise Friday morning. Outside of snowfall potential, the forecast looks fairly quiet with a brief return of southerly winds for Saturday helping temperatures get to the 30s across the area. By Saturday night into Sunday another shortwave passes through the northern forecast area bringing some very minor potential for additional snowfall mainly along the Missouri and Iowa border. Reinforcing cold air will move in behind this system bringing lows in the teens and single digits for Monday and Tuesday nights. Temperatures return to closer to normal for the middle part of the week with dry conditions expected through this time. Our next chance for precipitation looks to move in late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 VFR conditions expected into the afternoon. Light snow is expected to move into the area around 0z this evening leading to decreasing ceilings and visibility. Periods of visibility dipping below 2 miles will be possible at times during the overnight. Expect snow to gradually taper off around sunrise with gradually improvement to MVFR after snowfall ends. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ021>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...HB