FXUS63 KEAX 230518
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up to a third of an inch of snow expected late this evening
  into tonight for areas in northeast MO (such as Putnam,
  Schuyler, Sullivan, and Adair). Potential for snow flurries
  for areas north of HWY-36 late this evening.

- Fluctuating temperatures through the start of next week with a
  welcomed warming trend bringing us above normal temperatures
  starting next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A surface low over the Great Lakes region is expected to continue
its track farther east. The associated cold front, extending down
into KS as of 19Z, will provide a chance (up to 40%) for snow
flurries this evening into tonight mainly for areas north of HWY-36.
Counties in northeast MO (Mercer, Putnam, Schuyler, Adair, etc.) may
see up to half an inch. Probabilistic ensembles have been less
excited about snowfall amounts by lowering PoPs with each new model
run. The LREF shows less than a 10 percent chance for northeast MO
to see a half an inch. Light snow is still possible with us being in
a divergent quadrant of the upper-level jet helping with forcing.
Limited low-level moisture will be the main prohibiter with
PWATs around the 25th percentile for this time of year.

With the passage of the surface cold front expect high temperatures
for Thursday to range mostly in the 20s across the area with some
counties in central MO climbing to 30 degrees. This happens to
be around 10-15 degrees below seasonal temperatures. A transient
surface high moves through the area during the day Thursday. As
the high moves to the east, winds will shift to the south
overnight into Friday bringing our temperatures back up to near
seasonal temperatures. Stronger WAA out ahead of an approaching
cold front will result in warmer temperatures for eastern
KS/western MO. Highs on Friday will be about 10-12 degrees F
warmer in western MO. Highs for western MO are anticipated to
be in the mid 30s to low 40s with eastern MO around freezing.
Saturday, the surface low continues its approach keeping our
winds out of the south. High temperatures for Saturday are
expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The temperatures continue to fluctuate with the passage of the next
system late Saturday. The aforementioned cold front pushes through
the area bringing temperatures for Sunday below seasonal normals.
The model consensus suggests this system tracks to the south keeping
precip chances well to our south. Sunday, expect high temperatures
in the low to upper 30s. Early Monday morning, a surface high
quickly slides through the area shifting winds to the west-southwest
starting a warming trend for next week which will bring us above
normal through the middle of next week. The next system gets hung up
in the southwest US as it becomes a cut off low. It appears that it
may be apart of a potential omega blocking pattern off the Pacific
Coast. This could keep conditions dry for our neck of the woods
through next week, however, this is dependent on the strength of the
blocking pattern which remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A couple nominal concerns within the TAF period; be brief
period of flurries or light snow shower as a cold frontal
boundary passes overnight and potential for MVFR ceilings. With
scattered nature and persistent trend for weakening, do not
have prevailing mentions within any TAF sites. Ceilings wise,
area of MVFR upstream in eastern Nebraska and Iowa may affect
TAF sites, and hard to lend strong confidence one way or another
with guidance struggling a bit in that regard. For the time
being, do not have prevailing MVFR, but will monitor for
necessary changes. Ceilings clear quickly post-frontal. Wind
gusts may approach ~20kts as well in conjunction with the
front/post front, easing by around 18z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis