FXUS63 KFGF 230104 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 704 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold weather advisory for parts of Northwest Minnesota tonight. - On and off snow showers through tonight then another shot of accumulating snow Friday into Saturday. - A breezy next several days as warmer air is ushered in. && .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Temperatures are on a downward trend (already in the negative single digits north of highway 2). Forecast seems to be on track with negative teens in colder locations (mainly in northwest MN) which is also where winds are expected to diminish when temperatures are at the coldest. Currently a few locations have wind chills near -28F but this is due to higher winds still lingering. These winds should continue to decrease later this evening and overnight. It's a balancing act, but for now the advisory seems to be on track with marginal advisory conditions favored in northwest MN later tonight/Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 ...Synopsis... A transient upper flow pattern will bring multiple chances for snow with a more focus shot on Friday and Saturday. Mean northwest flow behind todays cold front will maintain transient shortwave ridging and troughing with the former leading to increasing temperatures by Friday. However first we have to deal with one more cold night as post cold front temperatures plummet back below 0F tonight for all and below -10F for much of northwest Minnesota and parts of far northeast North Dakota. Light but persistent winds of 5-10 mph overnight along with lows in negative 15 to 20 range will lead to wind chills near -30 in northwest Minnesota overnight before improving by the mid morning Thursday. As such will go ahead with yet another cold weather advisory to account for this threat of hazardous wind chills. Thankfully this will be the last of the wind chills to speak for the next week. - Snow chances HCR's and scattered snow showers will linger into tonight with a low chance they continue into Thursday morning as weak WAA aloft and steep low level lapse rates provide enough lift to continue the light snow. Not thinking much additional accumulation if any but could see a dusting yet in the next several hours... not that winds wont drift things into the nearest sheltered area anyways as they remain a steady 15-20 mph through the early evening. As clearing works into northwest Minnesota and eventually the Valley and eastern North Dakota things will taper off with snow showers unlikely to still be around except in the far west possibly by sunrise. The next noteworthy snow chance then arrive Friday as a steady warm air advection ahead of an incoming shortwave brings what looks to be good chances for a widespread 0.05 to 0.10" of QPF with SLR squarely 10-15 to 1 for the majority of heaviest QPF (20-1 for any backside flurries) a widespread 0.5 to 1.0 is likely with a medium chance for up to 2" (40% in northwest Minnesota) should QPF overachieve. - Warmer Air Low level thermal ridging will build in amid westerly low level flow. this will cause a much warmer airmass than has been seen the past several days with highs in the 20s and 30s through the middle of next week. With this could come more snow showers as low level warm advection couples with passing shortwaves and vorticity advection though there is low confidence in any given day on actual snow chances. EFI also hints at well above average low level flow with winds frequently gusting over 20 mph through the weekend into early next week though the chance a wind advisory any given day appears to be low as of now. Clusters begin to show disagreement regarding large scale pattern evolution towards next Wednesday with a cutoff low over southern california ejecting through the four corners into the central CONUS. This could send a further surge of warm air our way or end up increasing precip chances as upper level flow shifts around the deep layer troughing. Either way once we get through tonight it looks like a much deserved warmup is in store. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 IFR ceilings are lifting across the region as clouds follow the diurnal cycle and dissipate this evening. VFR overnight, with visibility improving as BLSN ends. Another deck of clouds will form during Thursday afternoon, however its questionable if they will develop into a ceiling. A persistence forecast from the past few days would say that an MVFR BKN ceiling will develop, but moisture and winds in the boundary layer are less supportive then previous days. Therefore, opted to keep clouds SCT through Thursday afternoon, but note its possible we see an MVFR ceiling late Thursday morning through the early evening, much as we had today. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ004>006-008-009-013>017-022>024. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Rafferty