FXUS63 KFGF 231557
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow to move into Devils Lake area late tonight and
  spread thru the area Friday, ending Friday late night or early
  Saturday. WPC snow probs show 70 pct chance of 1 inch or more
  NW MN.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

With the light winds and slowly rising temperatures this
morning, was able to let the Cold Weather Advisory expire at 9
am. Most areas are starting the day with abundant sunshine, but
there are already some clouds moving back into the Devils Lake
region (as well as lingering clouds around the Lake of the Woods
region). Temperatures should recover back to the single digits
above zero today.

UPDATE
Issued at 605 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Watching an area of stratocu (MVFR clouds) moving east-southeast
thru north central ND and extends well northwest. These clouds
not handled by current models if you look at 850 mb RH fields so
uncertainty exists on how fast/far the clouds make it today.
But did at least increase sky cover over E ND today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

...Synopsis...

Progressive northwest flow regime at 500 mb into the weekend
will transition to a more westerly flow next week as
temperatures stabilize and overall warm to near or slightly
above normal levels. Shortwave will bring light snow chances
Friday into Friday night/early Saturday then dry weather takes
hold into next week.

High pressure over central ND will drop south today as winds
turn more west and eventually southwest later today and south
tonight ahead of next 500 mb short and associated sfc cold
front.

...Snow chance Friday & Friday night...

Next 500 mb short wave will move from northwest Canada thru
northern and eastern Saskatchewan by late today and across
Manitoba and North Dakota Friday, and Friday night northern
Minnesota and NW Ontario. Forcing with this system is focused
around 700 mb with frontogenetical forcing in SE MB and far NW
MN/NE ND around 18z Fri before shifting east. Strength of
forcing is on the weak side though. Therefore agree with model
data and qpf which shows an overall light snow event in the 1-2
inch range far NE ND into NW MN. Less forcing farther south and
higher chances for less than 1 inch SE ND/WC MN. Time period
would be late tonight DVL basin....then snow spreading east
Friday morning and ending Friday night...early Saturday in NW
MN. NAM soundings for GFK indicate peak vertical motion 15-18z
Fri and sounding saturated to 760 mb but most of the saturation
in the warmer than -10C range and thus dendrite flake growth
looks minimal. Hence agreeing with the overall light amounts.

Using WPC snow probs from 00z Thu show chances for 1 inch or
more 70-80 pct in NW MN but less than 20 pct SE ND. Chance for
2 inches of more are 20 pct in NW MN and near zero percent
elsewhere.

South winds late tonight/Friday morning ahead of this system
will be breezy esp northern valley, but soundings show an
inversion with mixed layer winds in the sfc-950 mb around 20-25
kts. Winds turn west Friday afternoon and northwest Saturday and
Saturday will see cold advection, but on the weak side. Mixed
layer winds indicate gusts 25 kts Friday aftn and near 30 kts
Saturday. Enough for some blowing/drifting but at this time
doesnt appear enough to hit advisory levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

VFR over the area with a clear sky in most areas as high
pressure is over central ND. The high will move south today and
winds at the sfc will turn more west to southwest and eventually
south tonight. Winds speeds 10 kts or less, which is much less
than past 2 days. Wind speeds increase to 12-25 kts overnight
tonight esp in the north Red River valley.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle