FXUS63 KFGF 232044 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged period of light snow Friday through Saturday will result in snowfall amounts around 1 inch, with up to 2 inches across northwest Minnesota. - Windy conditions and some blowing/drifting snow are anticipated Friday afternoon into Friday night west of the Red River Valley, then also including the RRV on Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 ...Synopsis... Looks like we will be stuck in northwest flow for the duration of this 7-day forecast period. Therefore, there will be periodic weak waves that bring light amounts of precipitation and gusty winds at times. Depending on whether there is falling snow at the time, or just blowing and drifting of the snow on the ground, this could bring minor winter weather impacts. Overall, temperatures will be much warmer than they have been, with highs generally in the 20s. ...Light snow Friday through Saturday... The first short wave looks to drop into the FA Friday morning, with a trailing one Friday night into Saturday morning. This makes for steady 850mb warm advection across the FA tonight. Think the current low clouds that are out there now will be trapped below the inversion, so it will be at least partly to mostly cloudy. Any areas that stay cloudy should also see at least some flurries. As far as snowfall amounts for Friday through Saturday, we are still thinking most areas should see amounts around or less than 1 inch, although there may be up to 2 inches across northwest Minnesota. However, this will be over a 24 to 36 hour period, and the rates of snow will vary throughout. As we know, visibilities will be the worst when snow is falling. ...Windy conditions... At this point, it looks to be pretty gusty (sustained winds 20 to 30 mph) Friday afternoon into Friday night across the Devils Lake region. Moving into Saturday and Sunday, these sort of winds will expand into the RRV as well as the Devils Lake region. On Sunday, sustained winds may be even higher along and west of the western edge of the RRV (sustained winds 25 to 35 mph). Wind directions look to be westerly Friday, northwest Saturday, and westerly on Sunday. Each of these days should feature some blowing and drifting snow (depending on how much blowable snow remains). These minor impacts from blowing and drifting should be felt the most across the Devils Lake region. With westerly winds, the immediate RRV is somewhat sheltered. Sometimes with westerly winds, there is a little RRV skip over and the eastern fringes of the valley see a little worse conditions that right within. With snow drifting across surfaces, scattered slippery spots may develop. Of course, anytime there is steady falling snow, these blowing/drifting snow thoughts go out the window. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 The current MVFR cloud cover across the Devils Lake region and the arrival of snow tonight are the main TAF challenges. At this point, have gone a little more optimistic with cloud trends for this afternoon, as it appears some thinning has been occurring. Not sure if these low clouds will entirely go away, so once the sun goes down tonight have turned more pessimistic (a shift towards more BKN ceilings). However confidence in what happens with the current clouds going forward into tonight is pretty low. Other than that, there are some timing differences for the arrival of the light snow tonight. Some models are faster (HRRR), while others are a little slower (NAM). For that reason, have tried to go somewhat in the middle. Either way, the snow will push from west to east late tonight into Friday morning. Wind speeds will turn to the west Friday morning at DVL, where it will start to turn gusty. The strongest winds should hold off until the afternoon (just beyond this TAF period). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon