FXUS63 KEAX 032153
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle/freezing drizzle expected Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

- Another drizzle/freezing drizzle event possible Friday night
  into Saturday morning.

- Colder temperatures expected tomorrow morning through the
  start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

With the recent passing of a cold front, winds have shifted to the
north and CAA has slowed diurnal heating. As colder air continues to
push through the area, expect sub-freezing temperatures tomorrow
morning. Tuesday morning into the afternoon, there is a 30 to 50
percent chance for drizzle, but confidence is low, owing to poor
model predictability for these types of events. Leaned toward the
drier side (i.e., slower onset), owing to antecedent subsaturated
conditions at the surface. Nevertheless, do not be surprised to see
some drizzle develop, especially during the afternoon, especially
for areas south of I-70. At this time, temperatures look to be warm
enough for little or no icing potential through the day (including
the evening commute).

During the day Tuesday, a surface low emerges from the southwest and
tracks to the northeast moving through southern and eastern MO.
Broad-scale lift combined with increased moisture will result in
precipitation chances for the majority of the CWA late Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday. As temperatures fall Tuesday night
when the stronger lift reaches the area, increased potential for
light precipitation will exist, with freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain potential apparent, especially for areas north of HWY-
36 (where confidence in sub-freezing temperatures is highest). Ice
accumulations at this time range from a trace to around a tenth of
an inch, with the highest totals generally expected to be near/east
of U.S. Highway 63. However, the LREF gives a 25-45 percent chance
for the KC Metro to receive greater than a hundredth of an inch
freezing precip, so impacts in the metro area certainly cannot be
ruled out. However, forecast temperatures in the KC area are more
marginal, with resultant very high uncertainty at this point.

Some of the complicating factors for this event include how cold
temperatures get on the upstream side of the cold front and how cold
the ground actually is (and becomes) when precipitation is falling.
Due to our recent warm weather, ground temperatures may struggle to
get cold enough to allow drizzle to freeze on contact with the
surface. Even still, confidence is increasing that some freezing
precipitation will occur, with at least some impacts expected on
elevated/untreated surface in northern Missouri Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. We will continue to monitor conditions to see if
the issuance of winter headlines is necessary.

Precipitation should end Wednesday afternoon, with a surface high
progressing from the northwest on the backside of the surface low,
reinforcing cooler air entrenched in the region. High temperatures
for the rest of the week will primarily be in the 40s (with some low
50s in the far southern parts of the forecast area).

Another surface low pushes through the region late Friday into
Saturday, yielding another chance (up to 40 percent) for light rain
(especially for areas east of U.S. Highway 65). Temperatures will be
near freezing once again in far northern Missouri, suggesting at
least some potential for wintry precipitation (should any
precipitation occur) in these areas. Thereafter, drier weather with
near-seasonal temperatures is expected to close the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

VFR conditions expected to last through the rest of today and into
the evening. Winds will shift from the south to the north with the
passage of a cold front. Wind gusts are anticipated to range from 20-
25 mph this evening. Later tonight, an MVFR cloud deck is expected
to develop and slowly dissipate through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier