FXUS63 KFGF 031023 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 423 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow in southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota this morning. 1-4 inches with locally higher amounnts near SD border. - Additional opportunities for winter impacts next week. Medium chance (60%) for impactful accumulating snow and blowing snow between Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025 ...Synopsis... Cold arctic airmass lies north of the border. Jet stream early this week is from the Oregon coast and thru North Dakota with several short waves moving thru it this week bringing periodic chances for snow. ...Today... SPC meso analysis shows the intense but narrow zone of 700 and 850 mb frontogenetical forcing along the SD/ND border and into central MN. This is causing a band of moderate to heavy snow which is going as forecasted. This forcing moves out of SE ND/WC MN this morning. Northern edge of snow has been held back due to drier air advecting from the north. Thus a late start to the snow in Valley City and will limit accumulations from reaching what it could have been so updated snowfall for this event is close to the lower end amount forecasting. 1-2 Valley City.... less than an inch Fargo. But snowfall does pick up just south of I-94. Kept advisory area the same as even though less snow there will still be impacts due to slick travel for the morning commute. To the north a broad area of very light snow will spread east thru DVL and into Grand Forks and parts of NW MN this morning into early aftn, but fine light snow and accumulations of a trace. Winds not a big player in this event today, but enough wind and snow on the ground to warrant mention of blowing snow this morning in SE ND. Kept cold advisory in play in NE ND thru Tuesday morning despite borderline conditions. ...Wednesday and Thursday... Next wave will move into the northern high plains Wednedsday with center of 500 mb low likely in southern Saskatchewan and a broad area of 850 mb warm advection east of it over E ND/NW MN and southern Manitoba Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing widespread snowfall. Mostly light...but probability of 4 inches or more of snow via WPC probs are in the 30-50 percent range in NE ND and NW MN, with less than 10 pct in SE ND. NBM probs for similar amounts in NW MN are a bit higher. Prob WSSI indicates a 60 percent chance for impactful snow and blowing snow, with 60 pct chance of minor impacts (advisory impacts) NE ND and NW MN Wednesday into Wednesday night. ...Saturday... a third wave is forecast for Saturday across SE ND into WC MN. WPC precipitation and snowfall have lowered a bit but indicates potential for an inch or two. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025 Accumulating snow is expected to overspread southeast ND and west central MN during the first 6hr of the TAF period and where this tracks IFR vis and MVFR ceilings should occur. Brief areas of LIFR vis may occur where moderate to heavy snow tracks, however so far confidence remains low in this at KFAR. Flurries or dry/VFR conditions are favored in northeast ND and farther north in northwest MN. Eventually this system transitions east and while there may be some lingering pockets of stratus in the 2500-3500 range early the trend should be towards VFR conditions at KFAR during the daytime period Monday. North-northwest winds 10-12kt increase from the west-northwest behind this system during the day Monday with gusts 18-25kt in eastern ND and parts of northwest MN. Winds should decrease some (at least loosing the gusts) Monday evening as low levels stabilize and gradient weakens. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ038-039- 049-052-053. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014-015-024-026-028-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ003- 029>031-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...DJR