FXUS66 KLOX 031732 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 932 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...03/908 AM. Dry conditions are expected through at least this evening, with warm conditions inland and areas of dense morning fog near the coast. Rain will arrive along the Central Coast tonight into Tuesday morning, and into southern areas later Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a brief break in the rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning before the next storm arrives Thursday afternoon into Friday. Dry weather is expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...03/932 AM. Very dense fog developed early this morning and has been quite persistent. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am but may need an extension for at least a couple hours in some areas. The upper air soundings at KNKX and KVBG tell the story with a strong surface based inversion up to about 2000 feet where the temperature is around 70 degrees. Inland areas today will again warm up into the 70s while coastal areas will stay in the low to mid 60s at best and Central Coast beaches in the 50s. The details for the next storm haven't changed much with the latest hi res models now coming in. Based on the CW3E charts it still looks like a weak to moderate on the AR scale for SLO County but rapidly drops below AR levels south of Pt Conception. This seems to be similar to what the latest ensemble runs are showing in terms of rain amounts, with 3-6 inches in northwest SLO County (possibly as high as 8" at Rocky Butte) with this first system Monday night through Wednesday, but dropping off to an inch or less across LA/Ventura Counties. Favorable upslope flow across the Santa Ynez mountains will create another rain peak of locally 2-3 inches there. Based on these numbers, and the very unlikely chance of any convection, chances are very small (5% or less) that rain rates will reach USGS thresholds for debris flows at any of the recent burns in LA/Ventura Counties with this event. This will be a very warm storm so little to no snow is expected below 8000 feet. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/311 AM. The AR will depart early Thursday, but moist slightly unstable WSW flow will remain in its wake. The cold upper low will spin a weak trof into the flow which will increase the chance of rain across the area. Rain is likely Thursday evening through Friday morning across the entire area. Rainfall will taper off in the afternoon and the rain threat will end in the evening. The trof will make this system a little more dynamic and convective than the earlier system. PWATs are down and rainfall totals coming in around a half inch with inch amounts possible on the coastal slopes. There is chc or brief heavier rainfall rates with this system with about a 10 percent chc of a heavy shower or TSTMs. Snow levels, again, are again expected to be very high. Next weekend looks dry with Dry NW flow fcst on Sat and a weak ridge slated for Sunday. Max temps will remain near 60 Thu-Sat but will climb 2 to 4 degrees Sunday. && .AVIATION...03/1215Z. At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep and the inversion was near 2300 feet deep with a temperature of 19 C. Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF Package. There is 30% chc for -SHRA after 06Z Tues for Central Coast airfields. Timing of cig/vsby restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Flight cats could be off one or two, especially during worse conditions. Most uncertain in how cigs respond as storm system begins to approach the area towards the end of fcst pd. KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Fairly confident in first half of fcst pkg, then low confidence after 06Z Tues. After 06Z Tues, there is a 25% chc of IFR conds (<0VC010/<3SM) and a 10% chc at best for V/LIFR (