FXUS63 KEAX 101125 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 525 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few potential rounds of accumulating snow starting: * This evening into Tuesday AM * Late Tuesday into Wednesday AM * Late Friday into Saturday - Temperatures 15-20 degrees F below seasonal normals Tuesday through Friday AM * Highs in the upper teens to low 20s * Lows in the single digits for Thursday and Friday AM && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 A surface high has settled into the region and has left winds light and variable across the area. Thermal profiles illustrate a dry airmass near the surface which makes sense with the surface high present. As of 9Z, the current satellite shot is showing a swath of high clouds moving over the region from the west which could help mitigate the effects of solar radiation keeping most of the CWA in the 30s for highs today with a few portions of central MO possibly reaching the lower 40s. Through the afternoon the surface high is anticipated to continue its track to the east as a shortwave approaches from the south and a boundary over the IA/MO border sags south. The shortwave from the southwest and the boundary to our north will provide some lift resulting in a few bands of snow late this evening into Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations are expected to range from a dusting up to an inch. Areas south of Highway 50 seem most likely to get the higher end of that range. However, the model consensus has continued to trend accumulation totals down. The LREF is only giving, at best, a 25% chance for any area to see greater than half an inch of snow. Since guidance has lessened confidence for this event, the most likely scenario is that most areas receive a few flurries to half an inch with a slim chance of some areas seeing around an inch where more persistent snow bands may exist. One of the complicating factors for snow development is the dry airmass currently present over the region. Dry conditions are expected to return around tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Unfortunately, this first round will only be a primer. Late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a much more impressive system moves through the area giving us a much better chance for significant snowfall. As of now, total snow accumulations are ranging from 4-7 inches across the area. The areas expected to see the most snowfall are south of HWY-36 and north of I-70. Model guidance has also been gradually trending snow totals down for this event. That being said, this system still has decent upper-level jet support and still looks impressive. The NBM seems to be alternating between 60%-80% chance for the KC Metro receiving greater than 5 inches of snowfall. The 75th percentile for the NBM is around 9-10 inches, so this is still a possibility. Snowfall is expected to continue through the afternoon exiting from west to east through Wednesday evening. Expect on and off periods of moderate to heavy snowfall for most of Wednesday making driving conditions increasingly hazardous. A winter storm watch is currently in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. We will continue to monitor conditions as upgrading this headline for most of the area will likely seem necessary. As a result of multiple rounds of snow, expect temperatures to drop as far as 15-20 degrees below seasonal normals from Tuesday to Thursday. Highs for Tuesday look to range from the low 20s to low 30s and even colder Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows for Thursday and Friday will be the coldest as they are expected to bottom out in the single digits. Minimum wind chills reach zero to ten below zero for most of the area for Thursday and Friday morning making extended periods of time outside dangerous. The pattern remains active as another system moves through the region late Friday into the weekend giving us another chance for wintry precipitation. Confidence remains low at this time due to the forecast being this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period. Winds are currently light and variable with a high deck of clouds around 20k ft. There is a potential for snowfall this evening, however left out of the TAF for now due to low confidence in timing and location. Cigs expected to lower towards the end of the TAF period around 4k ft. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier