FXUS63 KFGF 101723
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold wind chills expected this week. Wind chills in
  the minus 30s most nights and mornings, with minus 40s wind
  chills for parts of the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Scattered cloud cover is being observed along a weak shortwave
that will traverse the region today. Mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies are expected though midday, with increasing clouds
this afternoon. A few light snow showers or flurries are
possible where cloud cover is located, with little to no
accumulation expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 737 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Satellite and obs indicate stratocu continues over parts of NW
MN (BJI/TVF to ROX) but webcams show it is pretty thin. Some
flurries or ice crystals as well from this cloud deck. Looking
upstream toward Winnipeg new clouds have formed so may likely
keep patches of clouds thru most of the day in that area along
with flurries. So will update for that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Will continue to see an upper low over western Hudson Bay and
several shots of fresh arctic air dropping south into the the
area as we heed thru the next 7 days. One such cold surge will
arrive this afternoon and night as 850 mb temps drop into the
mid minus 20s and a similar airmass arrives Wed night. Soundings
indicate for today about 20-25 kts to mix down over E ND with
slightly less mixing into MN. Some blowing snow is
anticipated, generally though low level blowing/drifting, vs
suspended widespread visibility reducing blowing snow. Similar
blowing snow occurred in Saskatchewan Sunday, but snowpack there
is deeper and temps colder so easier to blow. But likely to see
snow blow over the roads peak wind time early to mid aftn in the
deeper snow areas around Langdon. Could see it too in far SE ND
where fresh snow exists, but where winds are more like 18-20 kts
vs the 25 kts farther north.

BIS and I added some flurries today. Despite lack of much cloud
cover upstream feel with 500-850 cold pool moving overhead
midday and aftn could see some thin stratocu form due to some
moisture around 900 mb per BUFKIT soundings.

Mainly clear tonight into Tuesday, but always leary of any cloud
patches as sfc high remains to our west. Enough wind yet due to
high off to our west to lower wind chills into the mid minus 30s
to mid minus 40s. That is based on current fcst temps for lows
tonight/Tues AM in the mid minus teens to lower minus 20s.

Surge of cold air again Wed night/Thu AM when wind chills will
get closer to -40F.

Friday will see a 20-30 pop for southeast ND into MN as a 500 mb
wave and sfc low move east into parts of eastern SD/Nebraska and
850 mb warm advection with a WSW 850 mb wind does look to
generate an increasing area of snow over parts of central and
southern MN into Wisconsin. Southern fcst area on the north
fringe of this moisture and lift, so low pops warranted. NBM
probs for 1 inch or more are actually quite decent in the 25-40
pct range SE ND into west central MN daytime Friday.

Grand Forks area may once again be a bit milder than surrounding
areas due to less snow depth and more black fields as the last
snow we had blew off the fields and into town.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

IFR conditions are intermittently being reported at KTVF with
VFR CIGs elsewhere. Look for a slight increase in cloud cover
across much of the area, with SCT to BKN likely as a shortwave
traverses the area today. A few light snow showers or flurries
are possible where the cloud deck exists. Winds shift very
slightly this evening, becoming more southwesterly, but
generally remaining at or below 15 knots through the afternoon,
and below 10 knots overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for NDZ027-029-030-039-053.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-038-049-052-
     054.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MNZ001>003-006-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-
     040.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MNZ004-005-007-008.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch