FXUS66 KLOX 102234 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 234 PM PST Mon Feb 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...10/233 PM. Dry conditions with cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. A significant storm system will arrive Wednesday and last through Friday. It will bring rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds to the region. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...10/233 PM. Relatively quiet weather is expected through most of Tuesday with increasing northwest winds especially into the day on Tuesday. A wind advisory will likely be needed for wind prone areas such as many interior mountains, southwest Santa Barbara and possibly extending to some other coastal areas. Most, if not all areas of Southwest California, will likely experience the highest precipitation from a single storm this season with our upcoming Wednesday through Friday storm. We now have high confidence that this will be a moderate to strong storm with a weak atmospheric river coming along for the ride. The most concerning timeframe will be We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for ALL recent burn scars of southwest California with the greatest concern for potentially life threatening and damaging flooding and debris flows in and near the Eaton, Palisades/Franklin, and Bridge burn scars. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 1 pm Thursday through 4 am Friday, except from 10 am Thursday until midnight Thursday night for the Lake burn scar in Santa Barbara County. At least minor flood impacts are likely beyond these areas with roadway and urban flooding possible. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches will be common at lower elevations and 3 to 6 inches across the mountains and foothills with almost twice these totals for portions of San Luis Obispo county (3 to 5 inches coasts and 6 to 10 inches Santa Lucia mountains). Heavy wet snow is a concern as low as around 6000 feet at times with the heaviest totals (10-20+ inches) expected above 7500 feet in elevation. We may eventually issue a Winter Storm Watch for these highest elevations. The additional rain and mountain snowfall will further serve to reduce fire weather concerns for the region. Damaging wind, especially at higher elevations, is also possible with this event, focused along a cold front pushing through the region Wednesday night through Thursday night or early Friday. The strong winds combined with water laden soils and at the highest elevations snow weighing down on trees may lead to isolated power outages. Increasing clouds and rain will support well below normal daytime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...10/232 PM. Rapidly improving conditions are expected within our storms wake Friday although it will be breezy and cool. Quiet weather will likely continue into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure is expected to mostly deflect storm activity to our north into at least early next week. Although there is a 10-30 chance that a weakening cold front could bring light rain focused across the Central Coast. Temperatures will rebound beginning Friday but in earnest through at least Sunday and possibly into early next week with near normal temperatures returning. && .AVIATION...10/1817Z. At 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, moderate to low confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Highest confidence in Central Coast/desert airfields except KPRB, which has a 30% chc for LIFR conds from 12Z to 18Z Tue. Lowest confidence in VTA/LA counties airfields - uncertain in the development for MVFR ceilings (SCT vs BKN). KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chc MVFR cigs (020-030) remain mostly scattered from 06Z to 18Z Tue. There is a 30% chc east wind component does not reach 6 kts from 06Z to 18Z Tue. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR cigs from 03Z to 15Z Tue. && .MARINE...10/1215 PM. In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will continue much of the time thru early Wed morning. There may be periods where winds drop below SCA levels especially in zone PZZ670. There is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds for the waters around Point Conception, Northern Channel Islands, and down to San Nicolas Island Tue afternoon into Tue night (PZZ673/676). Winds are expected to decrease some late Wed morning into Wed afternoon, then turn to SE to S ahead of an approaching storm system. SCA level S winds are likely (70% chc) Thu/Thu night, followed by SCA level W to NW winds Fri/Fri night. In the Inner Waters N of Pt Sal (PZZ645), SCA level winds are likely this afternoon/eve (80% chc) and Tue afternoon/eve (>90% chc). There is a 10% chc for GALES Tue afternoon/eve. SCA conds are not expected Tue night thru Wed night. SCA level S winds are likely (70% chc) Thu/Thu night, followed by SCA level NW winds Fri. In the Santa Barbara Channel (PZZ650), SCA level W-NW winds are likely (90% chc) for much of the time through Tuesday morning, before increasing to potential GALES (40-50% chc) Tues afternoon in Tues night. SCA conds are not expected early Wed afternoon thru early Thu. SCA level SE winds are likely (60% chc) Thu afternoon into Thu night, followed by SCA level W winds Fri/Fri night. In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru Tue morning. SCA level W winds are likely (80-90% chc) Tue afternoon/eve, with a 30% of GALES for western portions of PZZ655. SCA conds are not expected late Tue night thru early Thu. SCA level S winds are likely (60% chc) Thu afternoon into Thu night, followed by SCA level W winds Fri/Fri night. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 88-355-358-362-366>375-377>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX). Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for zones 348-353. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox