FXUS62 KMHX 101548 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1048 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled front will remain to the south of North Carolina today while high pressure ridge wedges into the area. Stalled front will lift northwards as a warm front on Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front sweeping across the Carolinas on Thursday keeping the pattern unsettled. May briefly dry out Friday as high pressure builds in from the north and west before yet another frontal system impacts the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 1045 AM Mon...Drizzly, raw, breezy, cool day acrs ENC. Organized accumulating rain has mostly ended, but has been replaced by widespread drizzle for much of the area. Temps holding steady in the low 40s for most due to the stiff nerly breezes, low ovc, and drizzle. Highs will remain about where they are. As of 7 AM Mon...Rain has already begun to end across our western zones this morning with more stratiform rain noted north of Hwy 70 and along the OBX this morning. Continue to expect this precip to push offshore this morning with dry but cloudy conditions expected this afternoon as low pressure noted to the south of the area along a stalled boundary pushes east and away from ENC. As we get further into today continued rain/shower activity is forecast across much of ENC at least through this morning as isentropic lift remains centered over the area. Given this, generally have Chc to likely PoP's in the forecast through much of this morning. Do expect the wave of low pressure to our south to push offshore later this afternoon, eventually pulling away from ENC this evening. This will allow for weakening isentropic lift from northwest to southeast across ENC today and as a result quickly lowering precip chances from NW to SE late this morning and into this afternoon before we become precip free across ENC by early this evening. Overall rainfall amounts will generally remain at or below 0.25 inches but this rainfall will be much welcomed given the recent dry weather. In addition to this, high pressure centered to the north will wedge itself into the Carolinas which will allow for cloud cover to hang around a bit longer into the afternoon and keep winds NE'rly. How long clouds hang around today will depend on how quickly dry air infiltrates the region but do expect skies to clear rapidly by mid afternoon from west to east. This will keep temps from changing too much from the morning lows with forecast highs only expected to get into the mid to upper 40s today. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 330 AM Mon...Surface high will gradually push offshore tonight while the stalled front to the south begins to lift north as a warm front towards daybreak. This should do a few things to tonight's weather. First this should gradually erode the CAD wedge across the Carolinas this evening. Next, this is forecast to result in increasing cloud cover late tonight and into early Tue morning. Finally, this should allow PoP's to gradually increase from south to north towards daybreak. Have kept SChc PoP's in the forcast south of Hwy 70 mainly after midnight in case a stray shower or two make their way into the CWA overnight. Temps tonight get down into the low 30s across our N'rn zones to upper 30s/low 40s across the southern zones and OBX. Though temps will be much cooler at the surface, expectation is for only liquid precip if showers do occur across our southern zones. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0330 Monday...Unsettled pattern with multiple waves traveling along a stalled boundary through midweek and a series of stronger fronts late week and this weekend. Early week...Offshore, coastal troughing at the SFC sharpens through the day Tuesday while CAD builds inland from the N. Some big questions remain above the SFC. At H850, the warm front aloft will be overhead somewhere over the FA early Tuesday morning, but there remains a lot of spread in guidance, which will have a big impact on when the precip will overspread the FA from S to N. Latest Euro keeps the front aloft S of the Crystal Coast until after sunrise Tues while more progressive guidance places it near the NC/VA border. Followed lead of short term forecast and erred on the side of the delaying the S to N progression of PoPs as the trend in the HiRes has suggested over the last 24hrs. Because of this brief delay, have continued to keep all precip liquid assuming that there will be enough time to warm the lower levels to preclude any freezing precip, but there is a nonzero, albeit low, chance some wintry precip works into the mix early Tuesday morning across far NWern zones. Tues coastal troughing sharpens offshore as next wave develops along the stalled front to the S to travel up the coast through the day with moisture influx off the Gulf persisting as Sern stream midlevel flow continues to merge with the Nern stream trough digging across CONUS. Midweek onward...Upper level pattern continues to become more amplified as weak Sern stream midlevel flow combines with the digging trough aloft working across the Plains while cluttered SFC fronts and waves travel over them litter the landscape. Ultimately, a secondary Nern Gulf system deepens enough as it works NEward toward the Great Lakes Wed night which will eventually send a strong SFC front with ample upper level support through the FA Thurs. Potential for instability development ahead of FROPA warrants adding at least a SChc thunder along the coast Thurs. The front at the end of the week is quickly followed by another front end toward the end of the weekend. This FROPA will have an even more amplified trough aloft supporting it so am expecting this front to have much higher likelihood of being followed by a significantly cooler airmass. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 710 AM Sun...Mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings are currently noted across ENC with all TAF sites seeing IFR ceilings as of this update as rain and low clouds continue to overspread the region. IFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites until this afternoon (19-21Z). In addition to these low clouds widespread rainfall will be likely across ENC through late morning as well as isentropic lift remains maximized over the area. Any site that sees rain may see brief reductions in visibility as rain moves overhead. As we get into this evening clouds quickly dissipate as dry air infiltrates the area and skies and vis become VFR. These VFR conditions will then persist into late tonight before ceilings begin to lower by early Tue morning with the approach of the next frontal boundary. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 0415 Monday...Unsettled pattern in place through much of the upcoming week meaning extended periods of sub-VFR likely. Multiple waves traveling across stalled boundaries keeps rain and flight restrictions in play until a stronger front Thurs night leads to some brief improvement behind it. A stronger front will cross the region second half of the weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 330 AM Mon... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure trying to wedge itself into ENC this morning while a stalled front remains stretched from east to west just south of the NC/SC border. A wave of low pressure is currently transiting E'wards along this stalled front and is currently noted near the northern SC border. The interaction between this wave of low pressure and the high to the north will be the main weather maker for our waters into Tuesday. Currently note 15-25 kt NNE'rly winds with gusts up to 25-30 kts across our waters south of Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico Sound and the Neuse/Bay Rivers as the gradient has recently tightened with the approach of the aforementioned surface low. While further to the north across the northern Sounds, Pamlico/Pungo River, and N'rn Coastal Waters widespread 10-15 kt NE'rly winds with gusts up to 20 kts are noted this morning. As a result have SCA's across our Coastal Waters south of Oregon Inlet, in the Pamlico SOund and Neuse/Bay Rivers this morning. As this low tracks to the south of the area, pressure gradient should remain pinched south of Oregon Inlet today and into tonight keeping 15-25 kt N-NE'rly winds with gusts up towards 25-30 kts across the same areas that currently have ongoing SCA's. Will note across the Gulf stream waters there could be the occasional gust to gale force at times today. Winds should ease by mid morning across the Neuse/Bay River down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by mid morning so have the ongoing SCA across these waters expiring at 15Z today. Finally to the north of these waters generally expect continued 10-15 kt N-NE'rly winds with gusts up near 20 kts expected through the entire period. Finally 4-7 ft seas are currently noted across our coastal waters this morning and should build as the strong N'rly winds persist to 5-9 ft by this afternoon with highest seas along the Gulf Stream Waters. Seas will gradually ease tonight back down to 4-7 ft along our coastal waters as winds gradually begin to ease as well. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 0430 Monday...NEerly 15-25kt winds will remain in place through Tuesday morning when the next wave will travel NEward up the coast along the boundary, SEerly 15-25kt on the E side of the circ, Nerly 10-20 on the W side. High pressure builds in from the N Wed early, before the next wave works up the coast turning winds SWerly ahead of the next front, a strong one, to cross waters later Thurs night-Fri morning. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CEB/RCF MARINE...CEB/RCF