FXUS65 KBOI 111006
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
306 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level
trough axis will pass over the region this morning, ushering in
an arctic airmass and further lowering our temperatures. Today's
highs will be around 20 degrees below normal. The Extreme Cold
Warning and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect unchanged.
Lows tonight will be 20-25 degrees below normal, with readings
near 30 below zero possible on the Camas Prairie (where the
warning is in effect). We will remain cold and dry Wednesday,
with highs again around 20 degrees below normal. A new and
strong upper level trough will approach from the west Thursday,
spreading snow at all elevations to eastern Oregon in the
morning and into SW Idaho in the afternoon. This snow will
continue Thursday night. Total snowfall expected by 5 AM MST
Friday morning ranges from 1 to 3 inches at Baker City, in the
Treasure and western Magic Valleys, and across the lower
elevations of southern Harney and Malheur counties, to 3 to 5
inches from Ontario NW along I84 into Baker County, to 3 to 8
inches in northern Malheur and Harney counties. The mountains
will have considerably less snow than in our most recent system,
with 1 to 3 inches expected at mountain-valley locations such as
McCall, Garden Valley, and Idaho City, and 3 to 7 inches in the
higher elevations. NW winds behind this morning's trough will
increase above 10 mph from around Boise south and east into the
western Magic Valley today. The strongest winds of the short
term period will arrive with the stronger system Thursday. SE
winds will average 10 to 25 mph from the western Magic Valley
northwest into the Treasure Valley, in the Baker Valley, and
across southern Harney and Malheur counties. High temperatures
Thursday will be a battle between winds which will increase
mixing and therefore temperatures, and the incoming clouds and
precipitation, which will act to keep temperatures from rising
much. At this time, we have trended toward the colder range of
available guidance.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern
continues throughout the long term forecast. Snow continues
Friday as an upper level shortwave moves across the area.
Additional snowfall amounts on Friday remain below an inch
throughout most of the area with totals decreasing from the
Lower Treasure Valley towards western Magic Valley. Higher
elevations will see more, however it will be generally under 2".

Come Saturday there will be a break in precipitation as a low
amplitude upper level ridge builds. This ridge will bring in more
mild Pacific air. The break in precipitation will be shortlived as
another round enters the area Sunday through Monday thanks to
an upper trough and accompanying cold front. This system will
bring less precipitation than that of the one earlier in the
week. In the valleys the probability of receiving more than 0.25
inches of precipitation through Monday ranges from 20% to 60%,
with the largest probability found in the Lower Treasure Valley
and generally decreasing towards the Upper Treasure Valley and
western Magic Valley. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and
snow below 4000' with snow above 4000' before transitioning to
rain Sunday afternoon. Higher elevations have a greater than 80%
chance of seeing over 4" of snow above 4000'. Models indicate
ridging building back into the area Tuesday. Current forecast
has temperatures hovering around 5 degrees below normal
throughout the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Light snow and stratus moving N to S
will bring low ceilings/vis to portions of eastern OR this
morning. Elsewhere, areas of low stratus/localized fog may
cause degraded flight categories at the TAF sites overnight.
Mountains obscured, improving from N to S Tuesday. Surface
winds: variable up to 10 kt, becoming NW-N 5-15 kt by mid-
morning.

KBOI...Generally VFR. A 30% chance of IFR/LIFR in low ceilings
or fog from 09Z to 14Z. Surface Winds: light and variable this
morning, becoming NW 5-12 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST Thursday
     IDZ011>016-029-030-033.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM MST Thursday IDZ028.
OR...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST /9 AM PST/ Thursday
     ORZ061>064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....SP