FXUS62 KILM 111128 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend southward into the Carolinas into mid week accompanied by cool weather and periods of rain. Low pressure will move along a coastal trof offshore, passing at its closest during this afternoon and tonight. The front will lift back north as a warm front Wednesday night followed by a cold frontal passage Thursday night. Another round of frontal passages and temperature swings is expected to bring more unsettled weather this upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled sfc front FL/GA location, will slowly begin to lift northward as a warm front during this period, remaining still south of the FA at the end of the near term. CAD wedge in place and holding up well during this period. Will keep an influx of cold air at the sfc from the parent sfc high over the NE States initially (moves out to sea by Wed) however, high over SE Canada to take its place. An inverted sfc trof to develop offshore and parallel to the Carolina coastlines south of Cape Hatteras today. Models indicate a sfc low to develop along it off Cape Romain and track along it to NE of Cape Hatteras by the end of this period. No amplified s/w trof strong enough within the SW flow in the mid and upper levels to pull that coastal trof onshore. In fact, its progged to waver further offshore once the sfc low passes by moving along it. All of this spells a near term that will turn fully cloudy, after this brief drier air intake early this morning. Best overrunning and isentropic lift, uvvs, to occur much further north of the area this period. Nevertheless, will see low cloudiness eventually dominate the ILM CWA with light rain or drizzle at times, mainly commencing later this morning, peaking this aftn into this evening, then backing off to just drizzle and/or fog once the sfc low passes by, which remains offshore. QPF today thru tonight will range from around one tenth along the coast to one quarter of an inch far NW portions of the FA. Will see a range of high temps today, with inland NW portions of the FA only reaching the low 40s and the immediate coast in the lower 50s due to onshore NE- ENE winds off shelf waters running in the low to mid 50s SSTs. Not much of a diurnal temp range expected given cloudiness and pcpn threat thru the period, with min temps tonight upper 30s NW portions to mid 40s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Old frontal boundary pushes close to the coast Wednesday while some shortwave energy aloft traverses through the area from the southwest. The bulk of the energy still remains north of the area, but has pushed slightly southward since last night's forecast cycle. Rain looking a bit more likely along and west of I-95, while areas closer to the coast remain a bit drier. Warm front lingering near the coast keeps these areas warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thicker clouds and rain keep highs cooler along and west of I-95 (upper 40s to lower 50s). This warm front keeps a similar temperature gradient for the lows Wednesday night, ranging from the mid 40s inland to mid 50s at the coast. Cold front races through the area Thursday, with the front itself pushing offshore by the evening. This front brings an organized line of rain moving from west to east through the area. Confidence is increasing on capturing possibly half an inch with this frontal system, but the dynamics have backed off a bit, so I've kept thunder out of the forecast. Maybe the bigger story is the big warmup, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s expected. With dewpoints in the mid 60s, it'll feel rather muggy out there. As the front pushes offshore Thursday evening, the forecast dries out. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley and into the Northeast Friday. This allows skies to gradually clear out throughout the day, but it also brings cooler temperatures. Highs only top off in the mid 50s, since 3-5 degrees below normal for mid- February. Lows Friday night in the low-to-mid 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast. Unsettled weather expected through the weekend. The wedge shows back up Saturday, as high pressure nestles in the Northeast. The old cold front that pushed offshore Thursday evening surges back northward as a warm front, edging itself near the coast. This brings rain chances into the fold yet again, while temperatures are generally on the upswing. Rain peaks Sunday as another cold front sweeps in from the west. Forecast dries out Sunday night into Monday, with temperatures falling once again. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overrunning, ie. isentropic lift, encompassing the Carolinas attm. Ceilings are steadily dropping to MVFR if they haven't already reached these heights as of this issuance. Via satellite imagery and 88D imagery, clouds and pcpn starting to fill in. Inverted sfc trof just offshore and parallel to the Carolina coastline will become more pronounced while the CAD wedge holds its ground across the Carolinas. MVFR ceilings with reduced vsby from light rain and fog to become commonplace across all terminals this morning and will persist for the remainder of the 24 hr fcst period. IFR with possible LIFR conditions will occur from generally midday thru the overnight period. Best chance for the light to moderate stratiform rain will currently through early this evening following by lingering low ceilings, drizzle and fog for the remainder of the night. Winds generally NE 5 to 10 kt except 10 to occasionally 15 kt at the coastal terminals due to the tightened gradient between the coastal trof offshore and the CAD wedge. Sfc low passes by later this aftn and evening and could back the winds briefly to NW-N at 5 to 10 kt. Extended Outlook... High confidence with the CAD wedge of high pressure producing MVFR/IFR conditions through Wed, with periodic LIFR conditions from bouts of precipitation. Confidence decreases-some late Wed thru Thu during a brief warmup along with the potential for sea fog affecting the coastal terminals. Finally, a strong cold front with associated flight restrictions is forecast to sweep across the area Thu night, followed by VFR Fri. Increasing chances for unsettled weather and flight restrictions to develop Sat. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...CAD wedge across the Carolinas and an inverted coastal trof offshore and parallel to the NC and SC coastlines. This coastal trof is not expected to waver into the coastal waters. Between the 2 features, the ILM coastal waters will lie. This will result in a continued pinched gradient across the local waters thru this period, resulting with active NE winds at 15 to 20 kt with infrequent g25 kt possible. The current SCA runs to noon today and will be borderline up to that point. The sfc low expected to develop offshore from Cape Romain on this coastal trof will track N to NE along it, passing by the local waters this afternoon and evening. It remains rather benign when passing by with the end result of winds backing to the N than NW briefly this aftn and tonight, before resuming NE directions by Wed morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft (6 footers primarily outer waters off Cape Fear, will only subside to 2 to 5 ft during this period. The NE-ENE wave/swell will dominate the seas spectrum around 7 seconds. An underlying small SE swell around 9 seconds will persist. VSBY from light rain/drizzle and fog could drop to 1 to 3nm at times. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Northeasterly winds at 10 kts gradually veer to the southwest by Thursday morning, with seas lingering at 2- 4 ft. By that point, the gradient increases ahead of a cold front, and a Small Craft Advisory looks more likely Thursday and Friday. Front moves offshore Thursday evening, allowing winds to veer westerly to northeasterly throughout the day Friday. Gradient decreases a bit Saturday, with winds at 10-15 kts veering to the SSE once again. Seas may try to reach Small Craft Advisory territory again by late Saturday ahead of another, stronger cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IGB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/IGB