FXUS63 KEAX 142212 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 412 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing drizzle (northern Missouri) and light snow is possible to likely tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon. - Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM Saturday for northwestern and northern Missouri. - Light snow with minor accumulations possible Monday. - Impactful accumulating snow possible on Tuesday. Details still uncertain at this time. - High confidence in bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills for Sunday through Friday. - Coldest temperatures and wind chills should occur Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and winds shows 60 knot west southwesterly mid level flow over the region thanks to broad troughing over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a 1040 mb surface high over the eastern CONUS and 1002 mb over the High Plains have yielded a tight pressure gradient, producing strong southeasterly winds this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph. Aside from the winds, plenty of cloud cover persists this afternoon with temperatures in the 30s. As we head into tonight and early tomorrow morning, the trough across the Desert Southwest will begin to eject eastward, with the attendant surface low sliding across Kansas. This will help generate some light precipitation by tomorrow morning across NW Missouri, likely in the form of freezing drizzle. By late morning, light rain may overspread much of the area, with freezing drizzle continuing up north toward the Iowa border. This will eventually changeover to light snow as the thermal profiles cool, with snow exiting from west to east by tomorrow evening. As of now, up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation will be possible across northern Missouri (especially NW Missouri), with a dusting of snow possible across most of the CWA. A winter weather advisory has been issued for far northern Missouri from 3 AM Saturday through 6 PM Saturday, as the ice and snow will likely make travel a bit hazardous. Winds turn northerly tomorrow afternoon behind the passing cold front, with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. Cold, Arctic air also comes behind the front tomorrow evening, with overnight lows tomorrow night dropping into the single digits to teens, and with gusty NNW winds continuing, sub zero wind chills are likely, especially across portions of NE Kansas and NW Missouri. By noon Sunday, a 504 dam H5 low works its way into southern Manitoba, with associated troughing extending as far south as the lower Mississippi Valley. High temps for Sunday afternoon should range from the teens to mid 20s, with gusty NW winds continuing. Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday morning are forecast to drop into the single digits. By Monday, the closed mid level low over Manitoba slides eastward toward the Great Lakes, with strong west northwesterly flow overspreading the region (500 mb winds up to 70 knots). A mid level vort max translating through the northwesterly flow may provide enough ascent and moisture return to develop some light snow across portions of NE Kansas and NW Missouri on Monday morning and afternoon, with some minor accumulations possible. A stronger mid/upper trough is progged to dig into the Central Plains on the backside of the northwesterly flow aloft as we head into Tuesday. This will bring the chance for more widespread and substantial accumulating snow, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 70. This system is similar to the system from earlier this week in that it doesn't have a well defined mid level low and take on the appearance of a classic mid latitude extratropical cyclone, so there are similar concerns about how the models are handling this system with respect to forcing for ascent and available moisture. With very cold thermal profiles, the snow ratios should be closer to 20 to 1, so any amount of QPF at all should translate to some decent snow totals. Ensemble and probabilistic guidance is becoming pretty bullish on at least 2" of snow across most of the CWA (again - especially southern portions of the CWA). The potential exists for this to be a Winter Storm Warning worthy event (5"+ of snow), but we will see how things evolve here over the course of the next few to several days. Aside from the snow chances, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for most of next week, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday are currently forecast to only reach the single digits, with near to below zero overnight lows for Monday night through Thursday night. Lows for Tuesday night and Wednesday night are forecast to drop to as cold as 5 below zero to 15 degrees below zero (likely back to back record lows at MCI for Wednesday and Thursday), with wind chills as cold as 20 to 30 degrees below zero. If this comes to fruition, it would necessitate at least a cold weather advisory, and potentially even an extreme cold warning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Currently VFR under an overcast cloud deck around 8000 feet with gusty southeasterly winds up to 25 to 30 knots at all terminals. These conditions should generally continue through late afternoon, at which point gusts should relax, with sustained winds remaining around 12 to 13 knots (however, elevated gusts could persist into the evening hours at IXD). MVFR CIGs should develop around 10z Saturday morning, with IFR CIGs likely by around 14z. Light precipitation could be possible in the 14z to 18z window tomorrow, with light rain at the KC Metro terminals and light wintry precipitation at STJ. However, confidence was too low at this time to even introduce a PROB30. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for MOZ001>008-011-012. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW