FXUS66 KLOX 141828 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1028 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...14/819 AM. A few lingering light showers are possible today, mainly in the mountains, otherwise today will be cool with gusty west winds at times. A warming and drying trend is expected over the weekend into next week. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County this weekend and most of next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/824 AM. ***UPDATE*** Just a few lingering light showers expected today, mostly in and near the mountains. Otherwise cool with some gusty west winds between 25 and 35 mph at times, especially near the coast. Looking at dry weather Saturday through next week and beyond with warming temperatures. ***From Previous Discussion*** Ydy's front is now well to the east of the area. There still a number of showers over the area due to the moist and slightly unstable WNW flow behind the front. Most of the showers are over the higher trrn where the add orographic lifts aids in their development. The atmosphere will dry through the day and both the clouds and showers will decrease. Some gusty winds will develop in the post frontal flow as well. Look for advisory level gusts in the VTA/LA mtns as well as the Antelope Vly. Later this afternoon or early evening advisory level gusts will develop across the western portion of the SBA south coast. Rising hgts and a little bit of sunshine in the afternoon will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas south of Pt Conception. A stronger sea breeze will serve to cool the Central Coast a few degrees. MAx temps will end up on the chilly side - A couple degrees either side of 60 for the csts/vlys. Saturday will be quite the pleasant day. Weak offshore flow from both the N and E will keep the low clouds away and bring some light compressional warming to the csts/vlys. Look for some additional warming due to a building ridge with 578 dam hgts fcst by mid afternoon. Almost all areas will warm 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees. This will push most max temps up into the mid to upper 60s. The warming will reestablish the marine inversions and short range ensembles show a decent marine layer cloud across the csts in the morning. There should be enough of an offshore push across the SBA south cst to keep that area clear. Max temps should bump up another 3 to 6 degrees. Look for cst/vly highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/1220 AM. Both deterministic and ensemble based forecasts are in good agreement through Wednesday and then rapidly diverge on Thursday. The flow pattern will be fairly fast moving with a series of trofs (Mon and Wed) and a ridge (Tuesday). None of the trofs will pack enough of a punch to bring rain to the area but will help to help the marine layer form and bring an increase in mid and high level clouds. At the sfc the E/W flow will be pretty neutral through the period while high pressure to the north will keep moderate offshore flow in place through the period. This will lead to some gusty winds through the I-5 corridor and SBA south cst at times. It will also likely keep the marine layer stratus away from the SBA south coast and possibly the VTA coast. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Monday with the trof, then a few degrees of warming on Tuesday. Despite the lower hgts and stronger onshore flow the ensemble consensus brings a good deal of warming to the area on Wednesday, would not be surprised if future forecasts come in with lower numbers for the day. Even with these day to day changes max temps will likely come in a few degrees of normal each day save for the csts which will be several degrees blo normal. Little mdl agreement on Thursday with both weak troffing and weak ridging forecast by the various ensembles. Good agreement, however, that it will be dry. && .AVIATION...14/1827Z. At 1750Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer or inversion. There was a deep moist layer up to 8000 feet. Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. With moist layer in place, scattered light showers will continue thru the morning with CIGs ranging between MVFR and VFR levels. By the afternoon, VFR conditions are expected for all sites with an increase in westerly winds. Gusty winds will continue thru this evening, before diminishing. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. CIGs will generally remain at MVFR levels thru 20Z. After 20z, VFR conditions are expected with an increase in gusty westerly winds. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. The winds will die off this evening as VFR conditions continue. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGs will continue thru 20z, then VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon through tonight. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. Northwesterly winds will develop this evening. && .MARINE...14/842 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue. On Sunday, winds and seas will briefly drop below SCA levels, but a combination of SCA level winds and seas will redevelop Monday through Tuesday with a 30% chance of Gale force winds around Point Conception Monday and Monday night. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas continuing. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas briefly dropping below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds and seas developing. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds developing across all the southern Inner Waters. For Saturday through Sunday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From Sunday night through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there will be a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Sunday and Monday during the late afternoon and evening hours. && .BEACHES...14/257 AM. A large, long period, westerly swell is making its way into the coastal waters and will continue through Saturday. This will bring high surf conditions to west and northwest facing beaches through Saturday. North of Point Conception, surf heights will peak in the 12-18 foot range today with local sets to 20 feet. South of Point Conception, surf heights will peak in the 6 to 10 foot range today with local sets up to 14 feet. With the morning high tides today and Saturday, some minor flooding of low-lying areas will be possible. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Saturday for zones 376>378-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...jld MARINE...RAT/Schoenfeld BEACHES...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox