FXUS62 KMHX 141131 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 631 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually expand and crest over the Carolinas today in the wake of yesterday's cold front. A stronger cold front will move across the region on Sunday before quieter weather makes a return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Fri...Much quieter start to the morning across eastern NC compared to yesterday as broad mid-level troughing aloft quickly swings off the mid-Atlantic coast and much drier westerly flow returns over the Carolinas. Surface low has now lifted into Atlantic Canada and taken its associated cold front well offshore, allowing an expansive high to continue building over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures have continued to fall since the previous update, now in the 30s everywhere except immediate coastal locations. High pressure and strong subsidence aloft will pivot across the mid-Atlantic today, keeping skies clear under a much cooler cP airmass. Predominantly northeasterly flow will keep temps locked in at around 40 across the northern OBX with onshore flow, while south and west of US 70 the mercury climbs into the low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 355 AM Fri...Surface high will not stick around, gradually shifting off the mid-Atlantic coast overnight as next mid-level trough digs towards the RGV and low pressure gradually deepens over the southern plains. While eastern NC will remain well removed from the low's associated precip, clouds will gradually increase through the night. Additionally, coastal troughing will sharpen through Sat morning which may provide just enough low- level convergence for a stray shower or two to graze the coast by dawn. Lows a few degrees below climo inland, hovering around the upper 20s to low 30s but mid to upper 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Strong cold front to bring multiple minor impacts this weekend - Monitoring the potential for a coastal low to impact the Carolinas next week Saturday - Sunday: A coastal trough will lift inland as a warm front during the day Saturday, stall Saturday evening, then lift quickly north of the area Saturday night. This will occur in response to a strengthening LLJ ahead of a positively-tilted upper trough shifting east out of the Great Plains. The upper trough will lift NE through the central Appalachians on Sunday, and will send a strong cold front east through the eastern Carolinas late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Based on the latest guidance, the front is forecast to move through ENC between 11am and 3pm. During the day Saturday, showers may develop along the inland- advancing warm front within a zone of increasing warm/moist advection. However, the best overlap of deep moisture and lift looks to reside just to the north of the area, and that is where the greatest chance of showers is expected to be focused. During the evening and overnight hours, continued warm/moist advection combined with weak elevated destabilization appears supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forcing appears to be modest during this time, which may tend to limit the coverage of showers and storms overnight. Forecast soundings Saturday night continue to show weak mid-level lapse rates and warm layers aloft, which should keep instability at a minimum, as well as the risk of strong or severe convection. On Sunday, strengthening southerly flow will allow dewpoints to rise into the low to mid 60s ahead of the advancing cold front. Due to the expectation of widespread cloudcover, heating will be limited, which should translate to limited destabilization. Even some of the guidance that are typically more aggressive with instability are only showing <250 j/kg MUCAPE. This will probably limit the risk of deep convection. That said, given moderately strong forcing and anomalous moisture, it's expected that a strongly forced, narrow line of shallow convection will push east across ENC as the cold front moves through. Despite limited instability, the presence of unusually strong low-level winds should support at least a low- end severe weather risk (main risk being damaging winds of 50-60 mph). Should early day cloudcover end up less, allowing stronger daytime heating, the severe weather risk would subsequently increase. For most of the area, a broad area of 0.50-1.00" of rain is expected. Where thunderstorms occur, rainfall totals of 1-2" will be possible, especially given the anomalous moisture in place. Outside of thunderstorms, shallow mixing of the boundary layer should support a widespread area of gradient/mixing-driven wind gusts of 35-45+ mph. With this forecast, winds and gusts have been trended up slightly based on the latest available guidance. Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest the highest chance of 45+ mph wind gusts will be along and east of HWY 17, and this is the area that has the best chance of needing wind headlines at some point. Based on BUFKIT downward momentum transfer guidance, a reasonable worst-case scenario is for some areas to see mixing- driven wind gusts to 50 mph. Monday - Thursday: Dry and cooler conditions are expected to start the work week next week. Attention then turns to a southern stream system that is forecast to cross the Southeast U.S. in the WED-THU timeframe. The general consensus continues to favor the development of a coastal low tracking up along, or just off, the Southeast U.S. coast. The latest suite of guidance has trended a bit further west with the track of the low. If this trend continues, this would put less of our area at risk for wintry precipitation. However, there continues to be enough spread to not rule out the wintry weather potential yet. Regardless, this system looks to bring us another round of widespread, meaningful precipitation which will help with the ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sat/... As of 630 AM Fri...VFR conditions prevail this morning, now under almost entirely clear skies as high pressure continues to shift east towards the mid-Atlantic. Aforementioned gusty winds have come to an end, and expect currently northerly flow to gradually shift eastward through the day as the high quickly moves offshore tonight. High clouds gradually increase after 00z ahead of the next area of developing low pressure over the southern plains. May see some MVFR bleed into coastal terminals around 12z tomorrow as surface trough sharpens just off the coast. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Strong cold front to bring gusty winds, LLWS, sub VFR conditions, and a risk of TSRA this weekend A strong cold front will move through ENC on Sunday, bringing an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA, LLWS, and sub VFR conditions. A period of gusty southerly winds is expected ahead of the cold front as well, with peak gusts in the 30-40kt range likely (60-80% chance). Aviation conditions improve as we move into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Friday/... As of 405 AM Fri...Secondary CAA surge has arrived behind yesterday's cold front, encouraging gusty northerly flow across most waters this hour as gusts reach to 25-30 kt. Offshore, the winds have pushed seas up to 5-7 feet north of Cape Hatteras, while farther south seas remain 5 feet or less. Stronger winds will persist through daybreak but gradually subside and veer northeasterly as high pressure expands over the waters and then moves offshore by Sat AM. Another coastal trough will migrate towards the coast shortly before dawn on Saturday, and may provide a focal point for a few spotty showers. Seas, peaking at 6-8 feet across mainly offshore waters beyond 5-10 nm, will steadily fall through the evening and reach 3-4 feet by Sat AM. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - A strong cold front will bring moderate to significant marine impacts this weekend A warm front will lift north through the ENC waters on Saturday, and will be followed up by the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday. In the wake of the warm front, southerly winds will steadily increase to 10-20kt, especially by Saturday night. Winds will quickly build even further ahead of the cold front on Saturday, with sustained winds of 25-35kt expected. Gusts will be even higher, especially over the warmer waters. The extended period of strong southerly winds will lead to hazardous seas for the coastal waters, with seas of 10-15ft expected south of Cape Lookout. North of Lookout, seas will be in the 6-10ft range. In addition to the winds, the front will be accompanied by an increased risk of thunderstorms. Where thunderstorms occur, there will be areas of enhanced winds, with gusts to 50kt possible. Marine headlines will eventually be needed for this event, so stay tuned. High pressure builds in next week with improving boating conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM Friday...A strong cold front will move through ENC on Sunday, and will be accompanied by a period of strong southwesterly winds. Sustained winds are currently forecast to stay just below gale- force, which should limit the risk of coastal flooding for soundside areas. That said, minor water level rises will be possible for soundside locations along Hatteras Island. At this time, coastal flood headlines are not anticipated, but we'll continue to reassess this potential. Additionally, increased southerly windswell may lead to some minor ocean overwash impacts for vulnerable areas of HWY 12 along Ocracoke Island. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...RM/MS MARINE...RM/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX