FXUS65 KTFX 140930 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 230 AM MST Fri Feb 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light snow accumulations are expected through the morning hours today before a stronger push of moisture brings additional light to locally moderate snow from this afternoon and through Saturday morning. - Temperatures fall back well below normal across all locations today, with the coldest values occurring over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. - Continued cold conditions persist through the weekend and middle of the upcoming work week, with the coldest days and nights occurring from Monday through Wednesday. - Additional periods of accumulating snow are expected on Sunday and Monday, most notably in the mountains and in northerly upslope favored locations. && .DISCUSSION... A series of shortwaves will lift/slide northeast/east over the Northern Rockies through Saturday morning as overall longwave troughing over the Western CONUS slides to the east as upper level ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific up and over the Gulf of Alaska. This will lead to several periods of widespread light to at times moderate snow through Saturday morning across all of Southwest through North Central Montana, with the period of "heaviest" snow arriving during the afternoon hours today and persisting through the early morning hours on Saturday. At the surface a building high over Alberta and Saskatchewan will begin to nose south into Montana this morning, which will help to return to the low level flow back to north. This low level northerly flow will allow temperatures to fall back well below normal across all locations after a brief "moderation" on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon the upper level flow will veer to the northwest in wake of the final shortwaves passage, with northwesterly flow aloft then persisting through the middle of the upcoming work week over the Northern Rockies. Additional shortwaves embedded within this northwesterly flow will bring additional chances for accumulating snow to Southwest through North Central Montana for the remainder of the weekend and early next week; most notably to the mountains and their foothills, and in northerly upslope favored locations over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. High temperatures over the weekend and through the middle of the upcoming work week will continue to run well below normal, with the coldest temperatures occurring over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 14/06Z TAF Period A band of snow with periods of mountain obscuring MVFR/IFR conditions currently over Central Montana will continue to move north into North Central Montana through 09Z. Snow is forecast to decrease over Central Montana after 08Z over Central Montana, but the band of snow is forecast to linger over North Central Montana through at least 15/06Z. Despite the decrease in snow, a shift to more northerly winds over the plains will continue mountain top obscuring low VFR/MVFR ceilings over Central Montana. Another surge of moisture is then forecast to spread more snow with widespread mountain-obscuring MVFR/IFR conditions over the area from 17Z through 15/06Z. -Coulston Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .HYDROLOGY... The flood advisory continues for the Madison River in Ennis because of an ice jam. Over the past few days, emergency manager in Ennis reported the ice jam is slowly getting a bit worse as the ice jam continues to grow. The minor flooding is starting to grow eastward towards Odell Creek, along with southward towards Highway 287. There is some potential that the ice jam could result in water going over Highway 287 if the ice jam continues to grow. Thus the flood advisory will continue until the ice jam breaks and the water recedes. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 5 -3 5 -6 / 80 80 20 20 CTB -2 -12 2 -12 / 70 60 10 20 HLN 9 -2 17 4 / 70 70 20 20 BZN 14 1 17 2 / 90 100 40 20 WYS 20 10 23 5 / 90 90 60 30 DLN 24 8 26 11 / 40 50 20 20 HVR 7 -10 -2 -20 / 90 100 20 10 LWT 8 -7 3 -7 / 90 90 30 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM MST Saturday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls