FXUS65 KGGW 192022
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
122 PM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Arctic cold will continue lifting out of the area this week.

- Some light rainfall is possible early next week that could mean
  roadways become icy.

- Access on unpaved roads could be difficult with thawing
  conditions this weekend into early next week.

- Fog is possible Friday morning, especially in the Milk and
  Missouri River valleys.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The arctic airmass that has been in place recently is expected to
gradually exit as surface high pressure over the central plains
continues drifting to the southeast. A strong upper ridge that has
been over Alaska has broken down and will move into Montana,
helping to break down the arctic airmass.

In the meantime, low level east or southeasterlies will continue
to bring Extreme Cold concerns tonight but most areas look to stay
above -40. Sheridan County will be the only zone that looks to
drop below -40, therefore they will remain in a Extreme Cold
Warning tonight. Petroleum County is expected to remain above -25,
so have dropped them from any headlines.

SE winds lessen and begin turning toward the west Thursday,
allowing some of the milder air from central Montana to move in.
Look for highs to range from near 10 above in Plenywood to near
the freezing point in Winnett.

The warming will continue into Monday, where highs may approach
near 40 at Plentywood to 50 along Highway 2 and south.

Then Pacific disturbances move in with small chances for rain or
freezing rain begin late Sunday night. TFJ

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Moderate to high confidence that arctic air will gradually move
out. Did blend NBM25 with NBM for high temp Thursday as arctic air
tends to move out slower than expected at times, especially when
there is a deep snowpack.

There is low confidence on rain or freezing rain chances starting
late Sunday night but the impacts are high, so left this wording
alone. TFJ

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2130Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Expect the cold but clear skies to continue into
tonight. High clouds will then drift in late Thursday with some
lower VFR clouds Thursday evening.

WIND: E to SE around 5 to 15 kts through tonight. Veering more S
to SE late Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK: There is a possibility for FOG and LOW STRATUS late
Thursday night into Friday morning as a warm front moves east.
This is because air is moistened from snowmelt. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM MST Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-
Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern
Valley-Prairie-Richland-Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-
Wibaux.

Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM MST Thursday for Sheridan.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow