FXUS66 KMTR 192343
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
343 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

Dry weather returns behind today's cold front. Expect a warming
trend into the weekend with mostly sunny skies. Dry weather looks
to last well into the next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

The cold front continues to pass through the Bay Area, with linger
light rain and drizzle being reported. These rain chances continue
to dissipate through the afternoon as the front exits and loses
strength. Cloud cover also thins into the evening for most places,
but holds strong along the coast and around the Monterey Bay.

Fog looks to form in the favored valleys overnight and along the
coast, but should erode in the mid to late morning. The elevated
moisture will prevent too much in the way of cooling in these areas,
which means tonight will mostly see lows in the upper 30s and lower
40s. After the fog, expect a sunny afternoon for Thursday with more
to follow!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

While most of the Great Plains are rolling out their new Cold
Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings, and Appalachia is
dealing with winter storm conditions, The Bay Area and Central Coast
is..

Well, we're looking pretty good!

Friday morning will see some areas in the deep interior having
chances for frost, but that will be the coldest temperatures of the
forecast. After Friday morning, both high and low temperatures will
embark on a steady warming trend as a slight ridging-zonal-ridging-
again pattern develops. This pattern will prevent the region from
drying out, as onshore flow reduces, but persists, and also deflects
any approaching rain makers to the north. Expect highs increasing into
the 60s and even the lower 70s into the weekend with lows climbing
back to the 40s and 50s.

As of the current forecast, this pattern persists well into the
next work week with fairly strong long- term forecast model and
ensemble agreement. There may be a slight chance for light rain to
reach the North Bay early Tuesday within some ensemble members,
but these chances look pretty thin.

Longer-term models deviate in the middle of the next work week,
leading to some uncertainty beyond the seven-day forecast. The
potential for district-wide rain is entertained by some model
outputs as very short trough and front arrive Thursday, but other
models have it erode before landfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

VFR is slowly returning as stratus continues to erode and lift.
Some areas are still experiencing a mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions but VFR should return for those terminals after 03-05Z
for most terminals, with Monterey Bay terminals seeing VFR after
12-13Z. High confidence that VFR will prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period. Moderate to breezy N/NW winds will
become light overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish this evening and remain moderate through the remainder
of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR with a chance of LIFR conditions near
KMRY. After 12Z, expect VFR to return and prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 343 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025

Rough seas with gusty winds will persist through early Friday
morning across the outer coastal waters. Scattered light rain from
the Bay Area down to the Big Sur will move inland by late this
afternoon. Seas and wind will diminish for the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...JM

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