ACUS03 KWNS 060826
SWODY3
SPC AC 060826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN
TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north
central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity
Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe
hail.

...Discussion...
Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low
mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent
portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic,
and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly
confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of
the Rockies.  It appears that a significant mid-level trough and
embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by
the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through
it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday.

The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead
perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it
progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late
Saturday through Saturday night.  Based on the various guidance, it
is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further
deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central
Texas.  However, this probably will be short-lived, with
cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly
developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states.

...South Central U.S...
The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying
boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will
contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment
across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast
vicinity.  Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the
lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE
on the order of 500-1000 J/kg.  It remains unclear how far inland of
upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become
boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of
mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely
scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce
severe hail.

Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm
development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable
near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward
advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through
northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle.  With storms rooted in
the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question
across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but
low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker
side.

..Kerr.. 03/06/2025

$$