FXUS63 KFGF 030854 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday will bring an area of light snow, mixed with rain southern RRV. Timing of precipitation is such that there is a 20 percent chance of minor impacts in the Devils Lake basin and less than 5 percent elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...Synopsis... Lingering light snow will taper off in the southern RRV and thru MN thru sunrise. Pops end after 13z and for now that looks reasonable. Rest of the day looks cloudy as 850 mb moisture in place. Some partial clearing may occur late day int the Devils Lake basin as drier air works into that area from the northwest. Temperatures today a bit uncertain. Stuck with NBM which indicates mid 30s to a few low 40s. No sun today but cold advection is minimal. 500 mb shortwave in central Alberta at 12z Thu will move southeast be into the Red River valley 00z-06z Sat. Band of precipitation ahead of this but most models are trending to have highest chances from eastern Montana thru western and central ND then diving southeast into northeast SD. Timing of precipitation with this wave favors a more daytime precip event for our area and less snowfall impacts. Colder air moves in behind this wave for Saturday, then followed by another short wave and shot of colder air for Sunday night and Monday. 850 mb temps dip into the -14C to -18C range by 12z Mon. This does appear to be the last of the real cold air as jet stream patterns change to a building 500 mb ridge in western Canada and the cold pocket that has been westside of Hudson Bay will shift east and northeast. Thus slowly moderating temps anticipated mid next week with potential widespread 55-65 degree temps end of next week. No significant precipitation expected next week. ...Friday Shortwave.... Elongated short wave moves into western ND Friday morning and moves east into the RRV Friday evening. This short wave will combine with some moisture moving north with southerly flow aloft around an upper low in Arizona. This will lead toward better precip chances dropping south with time as shortwave moves east. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles and HREF ensembles from 00z Thu do so the highest chances for 2 inches, 4 inches all west of our area focused in the Bismarck and Dickinson region. Plus the precipitation area will be moving thru this area at night. GFS does have a good 700 mb frontogenetical forcing ahead of this 500 mb wave and this moves east-southeast and will be the main forcing mechanism for precipitation. Timing of precipitation will indicate snow into western fcst area (west of the valley) 09z-18z Friday then spreading into the RRV 15-21z and then into MN in the afternoon/evening. Snow probls for 2 inches are near zero in the RRV and MN from WPC and from the ensembles. They are running near 30 percent Devils Lake area and higher west. So right now thinking with forecast sfc temps in the mid-upper 30s and precip in the daytime hours that impacts will be minimal in our area from this wave. Ensembles indicate 90th/10th percentile snow ranges of 0-2 inches over much of the fcst area. WPC shows 10-20 percent chance of minor impacts in Devils Lake from this system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 IFR to MVFR conditions continue across eastern ND and northwest MN due to widespread light snow. Snow is beginning to end from the northwest to southeast, and this will continue through 9-12Z (lingering longer in MN). IFR to MVFR ceilings linger after the snow ends and VFR chances do not return until the late afternoon Thursday over eastern ND and Thursday evening over much of northwest MN. Northwest winds 12-16kt will shift to the west-northwest and decrease through the day Thursday as surface high pressure builds east, becoming light and variable under the surface ridge Thursday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ003-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...DJR