FXUS66 KMFR 031006
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
306 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...Dry northerly flow will set up over the area today.
However some of the high res models and CAMS Convective allowing
models) that shows radar reflectivity shows isolated showers popping
up in portions of Lake and Modoc County during the day. We'll have
another day of seasonably cool afternoon temperatures and decreasing
cloud cover west of the Cascades. It will breezy this afternoon east
of the Cascades as stronger winds aloft mix down near the surface.

It will be dry warmer Friday and Saturday as upper ridging builds
into the area, with warmer afternoon temperatures. Mid-upper 70s are
in the forecast for West Side Valleys with mid to upper 60s for East
Side locations.

An upper trough and front will approach the area late Saturday
night. Precipitation will reach the coast late Saturday night, then
gradually move inland west of the Cascades Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. It's possible some precipitation could make it
east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. The majority of the ECMWF
ensemble members and operational ECMWF keep the bulk of the
precipitation along and west of the Cascades. In contrast, the
operational GFS and ensemble members brings the precipitation farther
east Sunday afternoon.

The clusters are in pretty good agreement with the upper pattern
similar to the ECMWF solutions. Therefore the forecast for Saturday
night into Sunday will lean towards keeping the eastside dry into
Sunday afternoon.

The front will move inland Sunday evening as a shortwave trough acts
as a "kicker" pushing the front inland, followed by post frontal
showers Sunday night into Monday.

We could catch a brief break in the action Monday night, but the
upper flow will be westerly, with another but weaker front pushing
into the area Tuesday morning. The best chance for precipitation
Tuesday should be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades, and
north of the Umpqua Divide.

500mb heights will increase Tuesday evening and night, with
precipitation diminishing and shifting north. All signs are pointing
towards dry and mild weather Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a
weak front Friday. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z TAFs...Light scattered showers continue but are
decreasing across the area tonight. VFR levels are expected to
prevail through most of the TAF period. Slight chances of
development remain for Roseburg and Klamath Falls. Guidance has
backed away from fog in the Umpqua Valley tonight, replacing that
outcome with a period of MVFR ceilings. Timing for possible fog in
Klamath Falls has also been included in the TAFs. Confidence in both
of these possibilities is slight to moderate at best, but they are
included in the absence of other activity.

VFR levels are expected to continue across the area through the day
Thursday. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM Thursday, April 2, 2025...Seas are expected
to be around 6 to 9 feet at 9 seconds today with north to northwest
winds generally in the 10-25 kt range. As a result, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect today out to 20 NM from shore off Cape Blanco,
and extending to 60 NM from shore off Pt. St. George. A period of
improving conditions is expected Friday through Saturday.
Thereafter, a building long period (17-20 seconds) west swell is
anticipated on Sunday, and this will likely lead to steep seas and
hazardous conditions over the waters.

-Guerrero


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning
     to 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$