FXUS66 KOTX 030910 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 210 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cool and unsettled weather pattern will persist through today with a warming and drying trend by the weekend. Early next week looks wet and cool again. && .DISCUSSION... Today: One more day of scattered showers and a 15% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The final weather disturbances will move through on the backside of a very elongated trough stretching from Manitoba Canada to the desert southwest. The area of concern is extreme eastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Any showers could have brief heavy rain, breezy winds, small graupel and an isolated lightning strike. With the ridge building just off the west coast, we will see an increase in northerly winds across central WA through the day. There is a 60-75% chance of sustained winds of 15 mph down the Okanogan Valley and onto portions of the Waterville Plateau and Upper Columbia Basin. There is a 35-50% chance of sustained winds to 20 mph around Omak south to around Highway 2. There is a 40-50% chance of seeing gusts to 30 mph, and that is mainly for the Okanogan Valley. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with around 60 for the Moses Lake area. This is at or just a few degree below average. Thursday night through Friday night: Showers will wane through the evening hours across the central and southern ID Panhandle. Skies will clear and Friday morning will be chilly, with low temps in the mid 20s to around freezing. The clear to mostly clear skies will continue through the period. We will begin to feel the influence of the ridge and temperatures will warm several degrees over Thursday. Low temps for Fri night/Sat morning will still remain a couple degrees below average given the good radiational cooling. /Nisbet Saturday through Wednesday: The weekend will be gorgeous thanks to a high pressure ridge centered over the INW. Temperatures will be in the 60sw and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Changes are on the horizon Sunday night as the high pressure ridge shifts east into western Montana and weakens. Moist southwest flow returns and with that come rain changes for the entire region. Snow levels initially Monday morning around around 4500-6000' but lower to 3500-4500' by Tuesday morning. This will bring light snow to Stevens Pass overnight Monday into Tuesday with a 20% chance of 4+" by noon Tuesday. From Monday morning to Tuesday night, central WA has a 5-30% chance of 0.25"+ of rain, 30-50% chance for eastern WA, and 50-70% chance for north ID. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday and Thursday next week look showery but warmer as clusters are in good agreement of another high pressure ridge building. /db && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Light showers will drift southeast through the night clearing the Spokane and Coeur d'Alene area by 09z with little measurable rain anticipated. The light mid-level northwest flow accompanying the shortwave spawning these showers will have the potential to produce a 1000-2500ft stratus deck between Spokane and Pullman by Friday morning. GFS MOS guidance has advertised this potential off an on the last several hour. HREF probabilistic data gives Pullman a 50 percent chance of ceilings below 2000 feet between 14-17z and Coeur d'Alene a 40 percent chance. The most concentrated shower activity will occur over the Idaho Panhandle behind tonight's shortwave with PROB30 chances for showers at Coeur d'Alene and Pullman from mid afternoon into early evening. /GKoch FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Mid-level northwest flow is less favorable for low stratus development around Spokane than recent nights, but it still can't be ruled out with a 30 percent chance on the HREF of ceilings below 2000ft. /GKoch ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 53 30 56 32 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 50 28 56 29 61 34 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 30 54 31 59 37 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 55 34 59 34 65 40 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 53 27 57 30 61 34 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 28 54 29 58 33 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 45 28 51 30 58 36 / 80 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 31 62 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 57 36 59 37 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 31 61 34 65 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$