FXUS65 KBOI 120934
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
334 AM MDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...A line of showers
and from Burns to Baker City and east to McCall will shift
eastward as new showers develop and propagate northeastward this
morning. There has been an occasional thunderstorm or two as
well, but those are expected to end by early morning. The
activity was supported by dynamics and instability associated
with an upper trough. The trough will continue to move eastward
and across our area today. The showers diminish this afternoon
and end this evening, with the bulk of the showers limited to
central Idaho. Snow levels lower to around 6000 feet with light
snow accumulations of around an inch in west central Idaho.
Gusty northwest winds develop by late morning and persist
through this evening, especially in s-central Idaho where gusts
to around 40 mph are expected. A dry northwest flow aloft
develops tonight and continues through Sunday as an upper ridge
approaches from the west. The ridge moves into our area on
Monday for continued dry weather. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool through Sunday, followed by warmer temperatures
on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Models remain in good
agreement on Tuesday, depicting a dry southwest flow along with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. In a complete
reversal from 24 hours ago which showed an upper ridge and above
normal temperatures, the models now generally agree that a
high-amplitude ridge develops off the west coast during midweek
which allows a western Canadian trough to move southward into
the Intermountain West. The southern end of the trough forms a
closed upper low, which could circulate over our area Thursday
through the end of the week. Forecast confidence is low due to
the sudden change and also due to uncertainty in the strength
and track of the low. A blend of the ensembles results in
cooler temperatures and a 10-20 percent chance of showers in SW
Idaho on Thursday. If the models remain consistent and become
better aligned, then forecast temperatures will be much cooler
along with a greater chance of showers at least through Friday
and possibly into Saturday if the system is slow to exit.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms from near KBNO-KBKE and KMYL until 12Z. MVFR
showers and mountain obscuration mainly confined to central
Idaho after 12Z, diminishing after 18Z and ending by Sun/00Z.
Surface winds: mostly N-NW 10-20 kt increasing to 15-25 kt with
gusts to 35 kts in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft: SW
20-30 kt becoming W in the afternoon then NW in the evening.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt increasing to 10-20 kt
with gusts 20-30 kt after 16Z.

Sunday Outlook....VFR. Surface winds mainly W-NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW