FXUS62 KILM 121404 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1004 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will usher in dry and slightly cool air for the weekend. A warmup Monday will be reversed by a weak cold front Tuesday. Temperatures will climb towards the end of the week ahead of another cold front. && .UPDATE... Made some upward adjustments to the hourly sky coverage, as the northerly flow is creating more cloud cover than initially thought. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM EDT forecast update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds should persist through mid morning despite cold, dry air advection working its way southward today. As the boundary layer deepens late this morning and into the afternoon, mixing will allow a few peeks of sunshine through the cloud deck. There is a better chance of this occurring over portions of northeastern SC. During the mid and late afternoon hours, the upper low that produced showers and thunderstorms on Friday will push a thin layer of low to mid-level moisture through the region. This will set the stage for some marginal rain chances into the late afternoon and evening hours. As the base of the upper low rotates eastward, height falls should erode the mid level inversion for a few hours. A localized vort max will also provide sufficient lift for any moist parcels (if any exist) to sustain some limited vertical structure. The biggest concern at this stage is the availability of moisture outside of a very thin layer near the LCL. Any "showers" that develop will be light or better described as a brief sprinkle. I have introduced a 20% PoP over southeastern NC and the Grand Strand where chances are best. There is a small chance that showers expand into portions of northeastern SC as far south as Florence. Rightfully so, models don't show a great deal of activity due to dry air both aloft and near the surface, but these patterns tend to exceed expectations. Lift can overcome a surprising amount of environmental deficiencies. Dry air overtakes the remainder of the forecast period. Clear skies develop behind the upper low and overnight lows drop into the upper 30s to near 40 over inland SC, mid 40s near the coast, and lower 40s over southeastern NC where early cloud cover will tamper with some early cooling potential. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid level pattern will relax through the short term period as the somewhat deep troughing becomes more zonal. At the surface weak high pressure will shift into a warming deep westerly/downslope flow. With a dry forecast throughout highs will increase from around 70 Sunday to the lower to perhaps middle 80s Monday. Lows will follow a similar pattern with upper 40s Monday morning to a breezy lower 60s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall a dry forecast remains intact for the extended period not really unusual for April. The mid level pattern will see a couple of subtle troughs push dry cold fronts across the area...one late Tuesday and another Thursday. These will serve to keep temperatures in check with numbers a bit on the cooler side early on warming in time by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Patchy MVFR across the region will gradually lift to VFR CIGs over the next 2-3 hours. Clouds have been initially more widespread than expected and don't expect this to change today. Some showers will be possible at ILM late this afternoon as an upper low rotates through the region. Gusts up to 20 knots this morning along the coast and around 15 knots later today as the initial surge of cold air dampens. High confidence in VFR overnight. Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Cold air advection following a cold front will continue today as high pressure builds. Winds between 15-20 knots this morning will gradually weaken through the afternoon. Expect a few infrequent gusts up to 25 knots prior to noon. As and upper low moves offshore this evening, showers are expected to develop and outflows could produce some locally strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm chances increase as they approach the Gulf Stream after sunset. Seas around 2-4 feet early, becoming 2-3 feet tonight outside of showers and storms. Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly light and variable winds Sunday...officially from the north will give way to a stronger better defined southwest flow through most of the day Tuesday. Peak winds will be in a range of 20- 25 knots...on the lower end occurring late Monday. This may prompt a marginal headline. Late Tuesday into mid week an offshore flow will develop. The highest significant seas occur in and around the higher winds 4-6 feet later Monday. Outside of this a more common range of 2-4 feet can be expected with lower values later Sunday and very late in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK/CRM AVIATION...21 MARINE...SHK/21/CRM