FXUS62 KILM 122319 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 719 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will usher in dry and slightly cool air tonight and Sunday. Next week will feature high pressure aside from a mainly dry cold frontal passage Tuesday, and near to above normal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Scattered very light showers are currently moving across the Cape Fear region, and will dissipate over the next hour or so. Clouds will clear by midnight, with cool night still in store with lows of 38-42F. 0z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows a few centers of low pressure associated with an old frontal boundary offshore, while high pressure extends along the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley. The Carolinas have been firmly placed in the western edge of the counterclockwise flow of the offshore surface lows, which has ushered in mostly cloudy skies through most of the day. NNW flow has brought in plenty of shortwave energy aloft, as it's traversing through lee side of the broader trough. Moisture profiles look pretty dry overall, with the altocu and stratocu basically being the only games in town. Some parts of southeast NC may get a drizzle or a brief, light shower at best over the next few hours, but this doesn't look very likely. Skies clear out late tonight from the WNW. Chilly lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, which keeps us above the thresholds for frost. Much more sunshine on tap for Sunday. Cool high pressure will allow temperatures to warm up slightly to the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... One more somewhat cool night Sunday night as CAA winds down with weak sfc high pressure building into the Carolinas. Light wind and a clear sky will allow for temps to fall into the mid 40s to lwr 50s. Much warmer then for Monday compared to Sunday as a mid-level ridge axis moves into the Carolinas along with breezy SW flow...highs reaching the low/mid 80s, with upr 70s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upr-level trough and associated sfc cold front move through on Tuesday, but these features will be progressive and lacking moisture so not anticipating much rainfall...at most a 20% chance of showers over the Cape Fear region in association with a narrow ribbon of moisture prior to the fropa late Tuesday. Sfc high pressure and dry weather will be the norm for the remainder of the week. High temps in the 70s or 80s each day, except the upr 60s/around 70 Wednesday in association with lingering CAA following the aforementioned cold fropa. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the entire 0Z TAF period. Scattered cloud deck around 6-8 kft currently across the area will clear out by early tonight, followed by clear skies. A few diurnal clouds around 5 kft and high clouds tomorrow afternoon. Light northwest winds tonight into tomorrow, starting to turn westerly towards end of TAF period. Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Northwesterly winds at 10-15 kts through Sunday morning before backing to the WSW by the afternoon. Seas at 2-4 ft gradually drop down to 1-2 ft by late Sunday morning. Most noticeable swell is out of the ENE at 7-8 seconds. Sunday Night through Thursday...Sfc high pressure moves offshore south of the area Sunday night into Monday as SW flow slowly strengthens over the waters in response to a tightening pressure gradient. SCA conditions are possible starting Monday aftn, continuing through Mon night and potentially Tuesday due to frequent gusts up to 25 kt. A cold front slides through Tuesday night shifting winds to the NW and decreasing to under 15 kt for midweek. Sea state this period will predominantly be wind- driven waves, however a weak 8-9 second easterly swell will persist. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/IGB