FXUS62 KMHX 120200 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moves away from the area tonight. High pressure then builds in again late this weekend into early next week before another cold front pushes through the region mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 10 PM Fri...Severe threat has now moved offshore, with the last convective complex currently moving off Cape Lookout. Behind a secondary boundary cooler and more stable airmass has moved in with low pressure moving off the VA Tidewater. Some light showers will persist across the remainder of ENC the next couple of hours, but generally dry conditions are expected tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue overnight, but moderate CAA will help push temps down into the mid to upper 40s for lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM Friday...Much cooler weather is expected Sat as NW flow circulates a cooler airmass into the Carolinas. The big question is whether a cold core upper low traversing the area will be able to trigger a few showers during peak heating due to the latent instability present. Most of the models have been backing off of this idea but will keep a slight chance PoP and lean into conceptual models which support some shallow convection developing. With lower-than-average freezing levels cannot rule out some periods of small hail as well. Any coverage will be limited. Expecting a good deal of low clouds in the morning through early afternoon which will help to keep temps in check with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 AM Friday... Ridging builds back in to kick off the new week with temperatures rebounding. A fast moving and strong cold front push across the eastern CONUS Tuesday, although whether it brings any precipitation remains a question. Cooler high pressure builds back in behind the boundary as upper troughing once again settles in over the eastern CONUS. Sunday through Thursday...The upper low will be offshore by Sunday with upper ridging and sfc high pressure building in from the southwest, keeping conditions dry but steadily warmer through Tuesday. Mix of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to point to a frontal passage across the Carolinas around Tuesday. Trends over the past couple of runs have shifted the forecast towards a stronger frontal boundary and a modest increase in rain chances, although the 50% percentile of forecast QPF among all ensemble members remains 0.00". Did add a slight chance PoP out of respect to a persistent minority of wetter guidance. High pressure builds in back behind the front ushering in another shot of slightly below-average temperatures. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday Evening/... As of 8 PM Fri...VFR conditions are present across most of the airspace this evening, however an extended period of sub-VFR conditions will develop over the next few hours. Behind a low pressure system, cool and moist low level flow will bring areas of low stratus to ENC from late this evening through at least early tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will drop to MVFR first over the coastal plain late this evening (KISO and KPGV), and then after midnight closer to the coast (KOAJ and KEWN). There is some potential for ceilings to drop to IFR levels early tomorrow morning over the coastal plain, specifically up north in Pitt and Martin counties (including KPGV). After sunrise low stratus will be very slow to dissipate and/or lift with cool northerly flow continuing on the backside of the low. MVFR conditions will likely continue into the early afternoon in most spots across Eastern NC, with some improvements to VFR expected mid to late afternoon. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Friday...Ridging and high pressure returns on Sunday, ushering in predominantly VFR conditions into early Tue. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 8 PM Fri...Winds and seas continue to overperform this evening as an area of low pressure moves off the VA Tidewater. Seas continue to be 6-7 ft north of Cape Hatteras, and winds are 15-25 kts in varying directions. Have issued a SCA for the waters from Ocracoke Inlet north to Duck for the current high seas, as well as the potential for strengthening winds overnight tonight and tomorrow. NW winds are expected to increase to 15-25 kts late tonight and continue at this strength for most of tomorrow. Winds will be strongest along the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras where gusts to 30 kts will be possible. Seas will hold at 5-6 ft north of Cape Hatteras, and remain 3-5 ft to the south through tomorrow. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Friday...Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate late Sat and especially Sat night as a northerly surge of wind develops by evening and continues through Sunday. Forecast winds were increased again this morning, and now show explicit SCA conditions for all offshore waters and most of the inland sounds. Confidence is lower for inland rivers. Marine conditions improve Sun PM into Monday as high pressure builds back over the waters, but winds will increase again out of the southwest late Mon into Tuesday with another approaching front. Guidance has trended stronger with the front and now show SCA conditions over offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound ahead of this boundary. Ensemble guidance points to a 10-20% chance of Gales ahead of the front, confined over outer offshore waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...SGK/MS MARINE...SGK/MS