FXUS62 KMHX 120740 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 340 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system moves through the region today. High pressure then builds in the beginning of the week. Another front moves through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 330 AM Sat...Much cooler weather is expected as NW flow circulates a cooler airmass into the Carolinas. The big question is whether a cold core upper low traversing the area will be able to trigger a few showers during peak heating due to the latent instability present. There are still model discrepencies on when low stratu will clear, if at all. If it does and a window of heating occurs in tandem with upr support timing, then a few showers would be able to develop later this afternoon. With lower- than- average freezing levels cannot rule out some periods of small hail as well. Expecting a good deal of low clouds in the morning through early afternoon which will help to keep temps in check with highs only in the mid to upper 50s, with a few readings around 60 srn zones where best chance of some afternoon sun occurs. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sat...Aforementioned upr low will still be traversing ENC this evening, and hence iso to sct showers are in the fcst through about midnight, before energy moves offshore and loss of heating aids weakening. Best probs for showers remains in the wrn zones, where HREF probs are highest. Capped pops at 30% for now, but wouldn't be surprised with locally higher coverage. Again, with cold air aloft and low freezing levels, some small hail cannot be ruled out. Clearing skies after midnight with chilly readings down into the upper 30s to near 40 interior, with mid/upr 40s coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 AM Saturday... Upper low will depart off the eastern seaboard on Sunday, ceding ground to ridging that remains in control through Monday with temperatures rebounding. A fast moving and strong cold front pushes across the eastern CONUS Tuesday posing a modest risk of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler high pressure builds back in behind the boundary as upper troughing once again settles in over the eastern CONUS. Another front and area of low pressure will cross the country by the end of the week, although as is typical model spread is large. Sunday and Monday...The upper low will be offshore by Sunday with upper ridging and sfc high pressure building in from the southwest, keeping conditions dry but steadily warmer into Monday. Low-level thicknesses soar on Monday in increasing pre-frontal southwesterly flow, pointing to temps rising into the mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. Tuesday...Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to consolidate on a fast moving and strong cold front approaching the Carolinas on Tuesday, although there still remains some minor differences on its timing. The kinematics of the front are rather impressive with effective shear ahead of the boundary averaging 50- 60 kt per LREF guidance, and temperatures will be about as warm as Monday. This would normally raise flags for severe potential, but forecast moisture is meager with PWATs only around an inch and Tds in the mid-50s. Pretty much all reliable deterministic guidance now shows modest QPF with this system, and ensemble probabilities of measurable rainfall continue to tick up, so raised PoPs to chance for much of the area and retained a thunder mention in the grids. Wednesday through Friday...The front will give way to high pressure building in from the west by mid-week in another shot of slightly below-average temperatures. By Friday, long-range guidance points to another surface low lifting across the Great Lakes dragging another front towards our region, but spread in timing and forecast impacts remains expectedly large. Kept PoPs below mentionable for now. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday Evening/... As of 2 AM Sat...Cool and moist low level flow will bring areas of low stratus to ENC through at least early afternoon. Mostly MVFR cigs expected, with an outside low probability of some localized IFR, esp for KPGV. Today low stratus will be very slow to dissipate and/or lift with cool northerly flow continuing on the backside of the low. MVFR conditions will likely continue into the early afternoon in most spots across Eastern NC, with some improvements to VFR expected mid to late afternoon. Some iso to sct showers will break out later in the afternoon and esp early evening, with best chances for KPGV and KISO where vcsh in fcst. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 310 AM Saturday... VFR conditions likely to be predominate in the long term period as ridging and high pressure become dominant Sunday and Monday. Strong cold front will approach terminals on Tuesday, with the main hazard to aviation interests being gusty SW winds up to 20 kt. There remains a modest threat for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two ahead of the front as well. Cooler high pressure and VFR returns for Wednesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 340 AM Sat...Have delayed the SCA for the coastal waters, as seas are in the 3-5 ft range and winds below 20 kt. Seas still expected to inc to SCA range by late morning or early afternoon, though winds should hold in the 15-20 kt range with perhaps a few gusts nearing 25 kt over the warmer gulf stream waters tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 325 AM Saturday... Northwesterly winds will be easing Sunday as high pressure and mid- level ridging move back over area waters, ushering in benign boating conditions through Monday morning. Winds then increase Monday afternoon out of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front expected to cross area waters on Tuesday. Probablistic guidance remains bullish on a brief period of Gales across far outer waters ahead of this boundary, and confidence is high in SCA for the remainder of oceanic waters and the Pamlico Sound. Kept Gale mentions out of the grids for now, but the offiicial forecast is on the higher end of the guidance envelope. Peak seas reach 6-9 feet. Front crosses the waters late Tuesday with flow veering northwesterly for Wednesday and steadily weakening as high pressure builds back behind the front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...TL/MS MARINE...TL/MS