FXUS66 KMTR 120127 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 627 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 105 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Gradual cooling tonight into tomorrow before more widespread minor HeatRisk returns on Sunday into the beginning of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 105 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The upper level trough continues to move through the Pacific Northwest, which will continue to lower temperatures going into Saturday. Tonight, temperatures will be noticeably colder with temperatures in the mid to low 40s. Max temperatures for Saturday will be 5-7 degrees lower compared to today, with inland areas seeing low to mid 70s and coastal areas seeing mid 50s. Although there will be a gradual cool down from the surface cold front, temperatures will still remain slightly above seasonal temperatures. HiRes models shows the amplified upper level flow dipping a bit lower into our area tonight, which will help facilitate some strong and gusty northwesterly winds over our coastal areas tonight into Saturday evening. There is a chance for patchy fog and coastal drizzle overnight, but chances are lower tonight compared to this morning. With the chance for some occasional light offshore winds inland, expect the shallow marine layer to remain confined to the coast for the most part. There is a slightly higher chance for low clouds/fog developing near Monterey Bay and the East Bay Hills, but otherwise, conditions trend a bit clearer tonight. After the low clouds clear in the morning, expect a beautiful clear sky Saturday with the occasional high clouds funneling through the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 105 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Both the GFS and ECMWF, continues to show agreement with a weak upper level ridging pattern building late Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for a return of warmer temperatures and dry weather. Max temperatures Sunday through Monday will be 5-15 degrees above average, with inland areas seeing upper 70s to low 80s and coastal areas in the 60s low 70s. There is minor HeatRisk associated with this warm up for some of the inland areas for those who are extremely sensitive to heat. Tuesday through Thursday will remain warm and dry but temperatures will see a gradual down-tick towards low to mid 70s inland as the ridge continues to weaken and an upper level low develops off the coast of CA. Looking ahead..the trend for drier conditions and warmer temperatures are expected to continue as Climate Prediction Center 6- 10 Day Outlook highlights our area with a 40-60% chance for above normal temperatures and 33-40% chance for below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Winds stay moderate to gusty before easing in the late evening and early night. IFR CIGs build along the coast and the Monterey Bay in the mid evening. Some scattered clouds will form in the more interior areas, but do not look to form consistent CIGs. Cloud cover erodes in the interior through the mid morning, but coastal and Monterey Bay CIGs linger into the late morning and early afternoon. Breezy west winds return for Saturday afternoon with some gustier conditions for the SF Bay. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect the evening's gusty winds to reduce into the early night but still remain breezy. Winds reduce further into the night, becoming moderate for early Saturday. Gusty west winds arrive in the mid afternoon and look to reduce again into early Saturday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGS build into the evening as winds become light. Mist and drizzle look to affect the Monterey Bay into the early morning, leading to some reductions in visibility. VFR returns in the late morning and early afternoon and moderate west winds build. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 627 PM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Hazardous conditions persist over the coastal waters due to gusty northerly winds. Winds will be strongest north of Point Reyes over the outer waters. The stronger northerly winds will result in steeper wind waves and fresh swell. Northwesterly swell will build 10 to 12 feet at 10 to 11 seconds by Saturday morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea