FXUS63 KFGF 300855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low
  through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Not a lot has changed in the forecast over the past 24 hours. We
have one 500 mb short wave this morning moving into western
Manitoba with area of rain showers ahead of it, with south edge
skirting the North Dakota border with light rain Langdon to
Cavalier. Very light amounts. An additional short wave is moving
east thru south central Montana and this will move into eastern
Dakotas tonight. Ahead of this wavfe is a band of rain showers
from southwest ND into south central Montana. This band of
showers will move east and bring a period of light rain showers
to much of the area mainly this aftn/eve. As short wave moves
into Minnesota late tonight the 500 mb trough deepens as showers
become more widespread. Chance for isolated t-storm in SE ND
late this aftn with MUCAPE in the 200 j/kg range.

A third short wave upstream in northwest Alberta early today
will move southeast and thru the area Thursday aftn. Cold pool
aloft at 500 mb will give a bit better chance for showers and a
few t-storms, though focus seems to be more western and central
ND than eastern ND. Main t-storm chance stays more in central
ND Thu aftn.

Briefly cooler Friday then substantial warm up this weekend,
peaking Sunday or Monday as upper ridge builds over the north
central US into central Canada as upper low moves inland into
the southern Rockies. How this upper ridge breaks down early to
mid next week will determine chances for showers or t-storms. It
would appear better forcing and t-storm chances will be tied to
upper low over New Mexico early to mid next week and focus
strongest convection in the southern and central high plains vs
in our area.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Rain is starting to slowly move into the Devils Lake Basin
tonight, with a VFR cloud deck. LLWS is currently going on for
each TAF location and will continue through sunrise. Gusts out
of the south to 25kts will be possible for each location as the
precipitation shifts through. Rain will sweep through the Red
River Valley and northwestern Minnesota early in the afternoon
tomorrow, with thunderstorm chances 18z-00z. Winds may become
erratic and ceilings may drop to IFR in and around any
thunderstorm that develops. After 00z, winds will turn toward
the west and then toward the north near the end of the TAF
period. Lingering showers will be possible post 00z for the Red
River Valley into northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Spender