FXUS63 KFGF 301840
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low
  through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Surface front continues to gradually push southeast, now
extending from the James River Valley into northern Red River
Valley. Along and behind the front remains the focus for
showers, and will continue through the afternoon into evening.

There is an interesting signal recently showing up in latest
CAMs of widely scattered thunderstorms amid weak instability
attached to the front between 6-8 PM in southeast North Dakota
into southern Red River Valley. Initially this would be
concerning with respect to landspout potential given the low
shear environment and vorticity rich surface boundary, however
forecast cloud bases are very very high (around 2.5km AGL). This
alone may inhibit landspout potential - but still doesn't
completely negate it. It's something we're keeping an eye on,
but choosing not to advertise/message at the moment.

Should the chance for this to occur increase (say from more
instability available and/or visual evidence of lower cloud
bases just before initiation), we will message the potential.

Otherwise, these thunderstorms may still deposit small, sub-
severe hail given the updraft depth almost entirely below
freezing.

UPDATE
Issued at 717 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Short wave north of the border moving east and the rain with it
now east of Winnipeg. Southern edge of sprinkles into the north
RRV and far NW MN. Second wave in SE Montana moving east and an
area of showers with it from southwest into central ND. This
will move east today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Not a lot has changed in the forecast over the past 24 hours. We
have one 500 mb short wave this morning moving into western
Manitoba with area of rain showers ahead of it, with south edge
skirting the North Dakota border with light rain Langdon to
Cavalier. Very light amounts. An additional short wave is moving
east thru south central Montana and this will move into eastern
Dakotas tonight. Ahead of this wave is a band of rain showers
from southwest ND into south central Montana. This band of
showers will move east and bring a period of light rain showers
to much of the area mainly this aftn/eve. As short wave moves
into Minnesota late tonight the 500 mb trough deepens as showers
become more widespread. Chance for isolated t-storm in SE ND
late this aftn with MUCAPE in the 200 j/kg range.

A third short wave upstream in northwest Alberta early today
will move southeast and thru the area Thursday aftn. Cold pool
aloft at 500 mb will give a bit better chance for showers and a
few t-storms, though focus seems to be more western and central
ND than eastern ND. Main t-storm chance stays more in central
ND Thu aftn.

Briefly cooler Friday then substantial warm up this weekend,
peaking Sunday or Monday as upper ridge builds over the north
central US into central Canada as upper low moves inland into
the southern Rockies. How this upper ridge breaks down early to
mid next week will determine chances for showers or t-storms. It
would appear better forcing and t-storm chances will be tied to
upper low over New Mexico early to mid next week and focus
strongest convection in the southern and central high plains vs
in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period for most
sites, with the exception of KBJI as well as potentially KFAR
and KTVF. KBJI is forecast to see MVFR ceilings after 04Z, with
a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings at KFAR and KTVF after 10Z.

A front moves through the region today into tonight shifting
winds from southerly to north-northwesterly. Winds are not
anticipated to very strong, and remain in the 10-20 kt range.
Near and behind the front, showers will occur. In southeast
North Dakota, thunderstorms may occur (20% chance of occurring)
this afternoon into early evening.

Tomorrow will hold scattered showers and weak thunderstorms in
the afternoon, mainly within eastern North Dakota. This may
impact sites like KDVL. In addition to lightning, thunderstorms
may produce erratic gusty winds up to 40 kt and small hail.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ