FXUS63 KFGF 302107
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
407 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered thunderstorms within portions of eastern
  North Dakota are forecast this and Thursday afternoons. In
  addition to lightning, gusty winds to 40 mph and small hail
  may accompany thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Mid-upper level shortwave trough is working its way eastward through
the Northern High Plains into Northern High Plains. At the
surface, a front located from the southern Red River Valley into
northwest Minnesota early this afternoon is also working
eastward. Near and behind the front will be showers, with
expectation of thunderstorm activity to blossom near the front
in the southern Red River Valley (more on this below). The front
will gradually push east into central Minnesota tonight,
lingering rain chances through tonight in Minnesota. Generally
0.10-0.20 inches of rain can be expected, expect under
thunderstorms where 0.20-0.40 inches is liable.

Cold air aloft in the heart of the mid-upper wave moves over the
Dakotas. This along with daytime heating will contribute to
additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon (more on
this below as well). Northwest flow aloft and cooler air
filtering in behind the front will keep temperatures on the
cooler side Thursday and Friday. Then upper ridging builds into
the central CONUS this weekend into next week, helping push
temperatures above average into the 70s and 80s (first of the
year).

...Thunderstorms potential this and Thursday afternoon...

For this afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms will develop
on the front in southern Red River Valley. While not anticipated,
there is a low chance scenario of a brief landspout upon the
initial development of a thunderstorm attached to the cold front
in Sargent to Richland Counties. This is due to rich vorticity
along the front and sufficient instability for
thunderstorm/updraft development. Main limiting factor is very
dry and deeply mixed boundary layer, shown by cloud bases of 2.5
km or higher. Additionally, gusty winds to 40 mph and small
hail could briefly accompany thunderstorms.

Tomorrow afternoon's thunderstorms in eastern ND could also hold
gusty winds to 50 mph and small hail could also accompany
thunderstorms. This potential is relatively better in central
and western North Dakota, although areas in western Devils Lake
basin and Sheyenne River Valley could see this occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period for most
sites, with the exception of KBJI as well as potentially KFAR
and KTVF. KBJI is forecast to see MVFR ceilings after 04Z, with
a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings at KFAR and KTVF after 10Z.

A front moves through the region today into tonight shifting
winds from southerly to north-northwesterly. Winds are not
anticipated to very strong, and remain in the 10-20 kt range.
Near and behind the front, showers will occur. In southeast
North Dakota, thunderstorms may occur (20% chance of occurring)
this afternoon into early evening.

Tomorrow will hold scattered showers and weak thunderstorms in
the afternoon, mainly within eastern North Dakota. This may
impact sites like KDVL. In addition to lightning, thunderstorms
may produce erratic gusty winds up to 40 kt and small hail.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ