FXUS62 KMHX 301730 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored off the SE coast through late week. A cold front will drop south from VA late this afternoon and evening, then lift back north late tonight. A cold front will move through the region this weekend bringing more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Wed...Strong high pressure will remain offshore through Thursday, as strong low pressure over far eastern Canada swings an attendant cold front southward into the Mid- Atlantic today. The front will grad sink southward through this evening to settle in vicinity of the Albemarle Sound and the northern Outer Banks. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening, with best chances north of Hwy 264, closer to the approaching frontal boundary. Despite the meager shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible (best chances this evening), near area of enhanced instability, forcing and steep low level lapse rates. MLCAPES are forecast to reach around 1000 J/kg by 00Z. The aforementioned front is then forecast to lift back north of the area early Thu morning. Mild conditions will continue with lows in the 60s. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Jones and Craven counties due to the ongoing Black Swamp Wildfire. With S/SW winds continuing to advect smoke to the north, the NCDEQ has extended the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for Jones and Craven counties until midnight tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM Wed...Ridge wil remain off the East Coast on Thursday as a low pressure system develops over the Plains in advance of a shortwave trough expected to lift northeastward across the CONUS. This low will drag the stalled front northward as a warm front. Southwesterly flow will persist through the day, with WAA yielding highs in the upper 80s (mid-70s along the Outer Banks). With pressure gradient remaining tight overnight between low to the north/northwest and high offshore, southwesterly winds are expected to remain slightly elevated overnight, and lows are forecast in the mid-to-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - Next potential cold front impacts the area this weekend bringing unsettled weather to ENC. Friday through Saturday Night: Behind the initial shortwave trough forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains and Midwest Thursday, a separate upper-level trough will dig into the Midwestern US Friday into Saturday. These two features will yield a deepening surface low that is forecast to track northeastward across the Northeastern US/southern Canada, with an attendant cold front sweeping across the Ohio River Valley Friday as a prefrontal trough sets up across the mid-Atlantic. Cold front then later approaches ENC late Saturday. Guidance indicates two potential rounds of precipitation--one with the prefrontal trough Friday/Friday night and a better chance with the cold frontal passage Saturday. Guidance still differs on exact timing of frontal passage; however, there is fairly strong agreement for precipitation associated with the frontal passage. Latest trends have been to slow frontal passage slightly. Have reflected this in PoPs. Guidance does indicate potential for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with models depicting ~500 J/kg MLCAPE across ENC Friday afternoon and Saturday. Shear currently looks to remain more limited on Friday; however, enough deep-layer shear could be present to contribute to at least a low end threat for severe storms. AI/ML guidance continues to depict a non-zero threat for severe weather on Friday, so trends will continue to be monitored. Shear is forecast to increase as upper trough approaches on Saturday, and some AI/ML guidance hints at the possibility of severe weather. Any severe risk Saturday will likely depend on the exact timing of the cold frontal passage, which remains somewhat uncertain. Sunday - Wednesday: Upper-level (and thus surface) pattern remain uncertain with main guidance (ECMWF/GFS) depicting very different solutions. GFS is the most progressive with the upper level pattern allowing upper trough to push out to sea before cutting off and allowing an Omega block to become centered directly over the Eastern Seaboard. While both Canadian and ECMWF guidance cut the trough off around the Eastern Seaboard with an omega block setting up further to the west. If the GFS pattern were to verify, high pressure ridge would settle into the region and bring benign weather to the area. If the Canadian/ECMWF pattern were to verify front would stall near the coast with an upper low sitting over the Mid-Atlantic allowing for continued unsettled weather into early next week. Will have to monitor trends either way to see how things shake out. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 1240 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions trough the TAF period. A front will sag into NE NC late this afternoon and evening, which will bring sct showers and tstms, and potentially a brief period of sub-VFR conditions, mainly north of Hwy 264. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 kt tonight then become gusty again Thu afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure ridging will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Friday bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the week. There is a low end chance at seeing some sub-VFR conditions late Friday with the approach of a prefrontal trough with better chances at sub-VFR conditions this weekend as a cold front pushes through the area bringing the potential for shower and thunderstorms to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 905 PM Wed...SCA's remain in effect for the coastal waters Oregon Inlet to Surf City along with the Pamlico Sound through this evening. SW flow will increase through early this evening ahead of a cold front approaching the northern waters. Current winds 10-20 kt will increase to 15-25 kt through this evening over the Pamlico Sound and and waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas 2-4 ft will build to 3-5 ft this evening. The gradient will then decrease late tonight as the front briefly stalls near the northern waters before retreating north early Thu. As a result winds will diminish to 10-15 kt by Thu morning. Thu afternoon winds will increase back to 10-20 kt due to differential heating over land. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft tonight and continue 2-4 ft Thu. Sct showers and tstms will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the northern sounds and coastal waters, with potential for iso strong tstm with gusty winds. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Friday. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions until this weekend. We do finally see our streak of benign boating conditions come to an end this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Fri and Sat increasing winds closer to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and 3-5 ft seas resulting in the potential for SCA conditions at the end of the workweek and into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ092-193- 194. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 199-204. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...ZC AVIATION...JME/ZC MARINE...JME/CQD/ZC