ACUS11 KWNS 081837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081837
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Areas affected...The western Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 081837Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing over the mountains will eventually
become severe with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows some deeper convection
developing along/near the crest of the Appalachians. As low-level
moisture continues to advect north and the boundary layer heats up,
instability will increase. This should permit storms to strengthen
further and move off of the terrain. Effective shear around 40 knots
(per SPC mesoanalysis) and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will support the
potential for organized storms, including supercells. Expect a more
discrete mode with a hail threat initially before storms likely
congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing damaging wind
threat late this afternoon and into the evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by mid-afternoon
to address this evolving threat.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34178213 34688330 35308347 35728307 36138197 36298167
            36478155 36998106 37107967 36857882 36007896 34837967
            34268124 34278133 34178213

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN