FOCN45 CWWG 091900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT FRIDAY MAY
9 2025.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MANITOBA AND EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WIND WARNING FOR POND
INLET. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SANIRAJAK.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, CURRENT WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS DEPICTS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. DOWNSTREAM
OF THE SHORTWAVE LIES A FLATTENING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
IN THE ARCTIC AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO, WITH A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER FOXE BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SITS OVER FOXE BASIN WITH A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN HUDSON BAY BEFORE CURLING BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE
MACKENZIE VALLEY AND CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH SITS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
WITH RIDGING BACK INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND UP ALONG THE NWT/NU
BORDER.

DISCUSSION...

AB...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER ALBERTA, WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE HIGH TEENS TO THE MID TWENTIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. THERE ARE A FEW WILDFIRES BURNING NORTH OF EDMONTON, WHICH
COULD REDUCE AIR QUALITY AROUND STURGEON COUNTY AND LAMONT.

SK/MB...MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
PRAIRIES AS A NEW UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BRINGING SEASONAL TO JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTH OF SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES IN. THE AIR MASS IS STILL
QUITE DRY WITH WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 15-30% RANGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED EXPLOSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOUR AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPED THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE PYROCUMULONIMBUS
THAT ERUPTED OVER ONE OF THE FIRES IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS FIRE EJECTED AN ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA LAST NIGHT PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE
OF A SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR THE REGION. FIRES SHOULD
REMAIN ACTIVE TODAY GIVEN THE LOW RHS, MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND A
VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 700 MB.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY HOWEVER, THUS RAPID FIRE SPREAD ISN'T
EXPECTED, BUT FIRES SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SMOKE THAT WILL CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES, BUT A MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR IS POISED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES THIS
WEEKEND AND DRAW A MUCH HOTTER AIR MASS NORTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 20C OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
LOW AND PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES WITH HUMIDEX VALUES BUT WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER HEADING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

NU...THE FOXE BASIN LOW THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
YESTERDAY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCULDING AND WILL GRADUALLY FILL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A NEW LOW BEGINNING TO FORM IN DAVIS STRAIT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN
BAFFIN ISLAND, WHICH IN TURN WILL CAUSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT POND
INLET. PROG SOUNDINGS OVER THE COMMUNITY ARE SHOWING 30-40 KTS OVER
THE PEAK OF THE TERRAIN TO THE EAST. DOWNSLOPE WINDS PEAKED AROUND
18Z AND WILL NOW BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. WINDS OF 50 GUSTING
80 KM/H, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR POND INLET. COUPLED WITH
THE FALLING SNOW, NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED IN THE
COMMUNITY EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE WITH THE ABATING WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE FOXE BASIN LOW
WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE MELVILLE PENINSULA. THESE STRONG WINDS,
GUSTING TO 80 KM/H AT TIMES, WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN SANIRAJAK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL, ALLOWING WINDS TO
EASE. SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBLIILTY IN BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO OCCURING
OVER EASTERN KITIKMEOT, WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH AS WINDS EASE TONIGHT.

THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE NORTH TOWARDS HUDSON STRAIT
TODAY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW
THAT WILL ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY 5-10 CM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR KIMMIRUT AND IQALUIT TODAY
BEFORE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO DAVIS STRAIT OVERNIGHT.

NT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NT
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FORT SIMPSON AND
FORT LIARD REGIONS EASTWARD TO THE FORT SMITH REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 CM POSSIBLE IN THE
MACKENZIE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TULITA AND WRIGLEY REGIONS. HOWEVER,
THOSE COMMUNITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

END/DYKES/ZIOLKOWSKI/BATE