FXUS62 KMHX 090211 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1011 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain well offshore tonight as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This front will track across the region Fri night. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend, with a low pressure system expected to impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 10 PM Thursday...A line of thunderstorms is currently moving across the Piedmont with a notable gust front surging ahead of it. These thunderstorms are expected to weaken as they progress into our western coastal plain counties within the next hour or two, but strong wind gusts will be possible. Previous Discussion...As of 415 PM Thu...We continue to monitor convective trends with thunderstorms already beginning to develop lee of the Appalachians. General expectation given the latest data is for thunderstorms to develop into an MCS out west and continue E'wards reaching the Coastal Plain after about the 8-10 PM timeframe. Did keep PoP's at high end chance tonight as there is still some uncertainty in how much the MCS out west holds together tonight but do think its our best chance at some thunderstorms primarily before 2AM. While there is enough elevated instability for scattered thunder and a stronger storm or two, currently not expecting severe storms to develop as developing low level CIN will be in place. Best threat for precip will be prior to 2-3 AM, and then have pops decreasing thereafter, along with threat for thunder. Lows will be very warm, in the 60s area-wide. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 415 PM Thu...A northern stream trough digs into the northern Mid-Atlantic and will partially absorb a cut off low slowly pushing eastward across the Southeast on Friday. At the surface low pressure will develop and lift off the Mid-Atlantic coast Fri morning with a trailing sfc cold front pushing across the area Fri evening. Do expect some diurnal heating to occur and with widespread dewpoints in the 60s, expect instability to build Fri afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE forecast across ENC. Combined with deep layer shear values closer to 35-45 kts and favorable jet dynamics, this will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area primarily Friday afternoon, with some of these storms becoming strong to severe in nature. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concern with any of the stronger storms. Otherwise highs get into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 405 AM Thursday...High pressure ridges into the area from the north over the weekend, while another upper level cut off low deepens across Southern states which may continue to bring unsettled weather across the area with overrunning moisture lifting north toward the area. Saturday continues to trend drier as cold front manages to drop well to our south, keeping deeper moisture shunted over the Deep South. Maintained slight chance PoPs mainly south of US70, closest to the frontal boundary. The upper low begins to lift northward early next week which will bring better precip chances across the region with a good moisture feed and upper level dynamics. As is typical with amplified patterns and cut off lows, guidance struggles with the evolution and timing continuing to bring below average confidence with the forecast details, but stronger signal for precipitation remains focused on Monday and Tuesday. Deeper moisture remains on Wednesday before the upper air departs late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday morning/... As of 7:30 PM Thursday...All terminals are currently sitting at VFR, but chances for sub-VFR conditions will increase from west to east after midnight tonight as scattered showers and thunderstorms move into our western coastal plain counties. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue weakening as they move closer to the coast, with EWN possibly remaining dry through the overnight hours. PGV and ISO, however, will stand the best chance at seeing activity, especially between 03-06Z. Scattered light showers will remain in the area through the day tomorrow with better chances for strong to potentially severe storms in the afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches the area. The wind field will remain generally southwesterly at 5-10 kt through early tomorrow afternoon. As the cold front passes late tomorrow, winds will veer to the north. LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Tuesday/... As of 405 AM Thursday...An upper trough and sfc cold front will bring increasing precip chances into Friday with periods of sub- VFR conditions possible. Most models continue to trend drier for Saturday and Sunday but overrunning moisture will keep skies mainly cloudy. However, if precip does lift sufficiently north, could see some showers bringing sub- VFR conditions. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 415 PM Thu...Not much change in forecast thinking as S-SW winds at 5-10 kts and 2-4 ft seas are ongoing across our area waters this afternoon. DOnt expect much change in the weather tonight but do expect increasing SW'rly flow Fri with SW'rly winds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts and seas building closer to 3-5 ft by Fri afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Will note there will be a chance at multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms across our waters as well tonight into Friday out ahead and along the approaching cold front which could result in locally enhanced winds and seas near any thunderstorm. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 410 AM Thursday...Cold front is forecast to cross area waters tomorrow evening with N to Nely winds around 10-20 kt with higher gusts developing behind the front, which is expected to continue into Saturday morning. NE winds around 10-15 kt expected on Sunday. Seas will build to 3-5 ft Friday through Sunday and could see up to 6 ft across the outer waters on Friday night through Saturday night. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...OJC/MS MARINE...MS/RCF