FXUS62 KMHX 091100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will build in from the north early this weekend, with a warm front lifting north on Sunday. Then a low pressure system expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 7 AM Fri...No changes needed with am update. Area of stratiform rain associated with the dying overnight MCS is moving into the wrn Coastal Plain, so the higher pops through the morning hours appear to be on track. No thunder expected with this morning's activity. Prev disc... As of 4 AM Fri...A northern stream trough digs into the northern Mid-Atlantic and will partially absorb a cut off low slowly pushing eastward across the Southeast today. At the surface low pressure will develop and lift off the Mid- Atlantic coast with a trailing sfc cold front pushing across the area late this afternoon into evening. Area of stratiform rain with a few embedded elevated storms cont to move through ctrl NC expanding towards the Coastal Plain counties early this morning. Thinking that the lingering light rain, and at the least widespread cloud cover, will linger through much of this morning. Whether clouds can completely clear is very much in question, and will dictate convective coverage and intensity later this afternoon. CAM's have backed off on CAPE vals and convective coverage, and latest NCAR severe probs have followed suite, with probs for severe down to around 10% or so. Despite an upgrade to slght risk for some parts of ENC, am a bit skeptical that more than a strong to marginally severe storm will occur. HRRR and latest RAP guidance only indicating ML CAPE vals of 500-1000 J/KG, down from yesterday's vals. With Eff shear of 35-45 kt today, there is some risk of severe if the sun can make a strong comeback this afternoon. Lowered highs a bit, to no higher than the low 80s due to the cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 4 AM Fri...Aforementioned cold front will sweep off the coast early this evening, quickly putting an end to the precip, and area expected to dry from north to south during the early/mid evening hours. Lows will cool down to the mid/upr 50s interior to low 60s coast, with skies becoming mo clear towards sunrise. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Fri...The long term weather pattern across the eastern CONUS will be characterized by weak upper ridging extending over the Carolinas and Florida Peninsula, between the departing upper low over New England and a second closed low centered over the western Gulf. This ridging will continue to remain in place through the weekend before the Gulf low slowly lifts across the eastern CONUS through mid week and ridging returns behind it. At the surface, cold front crossing the region tonight will push further offshore, stalling well to our south along the Gulf coast and lingering there through the weekend with high pressure wedging in from the north. A deepening wave of low pressure will then develop along the stalled frontal boundary and lift across the mid-Atlantic through mid-week. Saturday and Sunday...High pressure wedge will keep most of our area dry tomorrow, although some isolated showers are possible early Sun morning as stalled front wobbles northward and overruning precip overspreads the region - best chances south of US 70. Dreary weather expected Sunday with ongoing on-and-off showers while front remains stalled just to our south. A few rumbles of thunder are possible along the southern coast with modest instability near 250 J/kg, although the instability gradient is sharp and its exact placement remains a point of forecast uncertainty, and for that reason kept thunder out of the grids for now. Highs this weekend below average, in the low to mid 70s especially inland. Monday through Wednesday...Surface low will be deepening and slowly lifting northward across the southeast CONUS in tandem with the cut-off low. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely Monday, especially west of NC 17 while the warm front gradually lifts north. Heaviest rainfall still looks most likely Mon overnight into Tuesday when deepest moisture will be in place (with some guidance showing PWATs around 2", well above average for mid-May). The current forecast calls for a widespread half inch to inch of needed rainfall, although some guidance suggest 1-2" in a reasonable worst-case scenario. Warm front lifts across the region on Wednesday, putting ENC firmly in the warm sector. More typical summer-time precipitation pattern returns at the point, with slightly drier column but thunderstorms possible along developing sea breeze boundaries. Thursday...Typical summertime pattern remains through the end of the week with daily chances of showers and storms with temperatures trending back above average. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 AM Fri...Scattered light showers will remain in the area through morning today, with drying late morning through early afternoon. If clouds can clear, then a storm threat will develop later this afternoon into early evening, with perhaps a strong to marginally severe storm. For now, due to expected cloud cover preventing ideal destabilization, will only advertise a prob30 for thunder later this afternoon. As the cold front passes this evening, rain threat ends and skies clear with winds becoming north but remaining light. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected Sat and Sun as high pressure wedges into the Carolinas from the north, although risk of showers lingers along the southern coast. Overrunning moisture will keep skies mainly cloudy, especially Sunday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday night into Tuesday bringing sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 4 AM Fri...Sswrly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts and seas building closer to 3-5 ft by this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the north. Will note there will be a chance at multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms today into early evening that could result in locally enhanced winds and seas near any thunderstorm. Front sweeps through early this evening with winds becoming north, and inc to 15-20 kt, with perhaps some gusts to 25 kt for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and north of Hatteras, and seas briefly building to 6 ft. Will hold off on SCA issuance attm due to uncertainty in persistence of these winds and seas more than a few hours. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 325 AM Friday...Main periods of concern for marine interests are Saturday where post-frontal surge may result in an ongoing risk of 6+ foot seas for far outer waters over the Gulf Stream. Other period is Monday through Tuesday as deepening low pressure lifts a warm front across the waters, with SE winds of 15-20 kt, peaking Tues aft and seas building to 5-6 feet south of Oregon Inlet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...TL/MS MARINE...TL/MS