FXUS62 KMHX 091843 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 243 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will build in from the north early this weekend, with a warm front lifting north on Sunday. Then a low pressure system expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Fri... *Key Message*: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening with the main potential hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail. Conditions have rebounded from a cool, cloudy, and showery morning with mostly sunny conditions now present and temps up into the upper 70s to low 80s across ENC. A cold front has moved into the central part of the state and will continue to push eastward this afternoon and evening. Along this front, scattered convection is soon expected to develop, and thunderstorms will have the chance to organize this afternoon with deep layer shear at or around 40 kts. The biggest limiting factor for the severe threat continues to be the magnitude of instability realized, as well as presence of some drier air in the low and mid levels. Scattered convection will continue this evening, with the best coverage across NE NC. By early tonight activity will wane as the front reaches the coast, and dry conditions are anticipated overnight. Cooler and drier air will push in behind the front by early tomorrow morning, with lows in the low to mid 50s likely inland, and low 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Fri...Cooler and drier high pressure will remain over NC tomorrow, and push offshore late in the day as a southern stream low pressure system approaches from the Deep South. Rain-free and partly cloudy conditions are expected, but mid/high level cloudiness will increase in the afternoon from SW to NE as the next storm system approaches. We'll have more seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across NE NC and the OBX to the upper 70s south of US 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Fri...The long term weather pattern across the eastern CONUS will be characterized by weak upper ridging extending over the Carolinas and Florida Peninsula, between the departing upper low over New England and a second closed low centered over the western Gulf. This ridging will continue to remain in place through the weekend before the Gulf low slowly lifts across the eastern CONUS through mid week and ridging returns behind it. At the surface, cold front crossing the region tonight will push further offshore, stalling well to our south along the Gulf coast and lingering there through the weekend with high pressure wedging in from the north. A deepening wave of low pressure will then develop along the stalled frontal boundary and lift across the mid-Atlantic through mid-week. Saturday night and Sunday...Dreary weather expected Sunday with ongoing on-and-off showers while front remains stalled just to our south. A few rumbles of thunder are possible along the southern coast with modest instability near 250 J/kg, although the instability gradient is sharp and its exact placement remains a point of forecast uncertainty, and for that reason kept thunder out of the grids for now. Highs this weekend below average, in the low to mid 70s especially inland. Monday through Wednesday...Surface low will be deepening and slowly lifting northward across the southeast CONUS in tandem with the cut-off low. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely Monday, especially west of NC 17 while the warm front gradually lifts north. Heaviest rainfall still looks most likely Mon overnight into Tuesday when deepest moisture will be in place (with some guidance showing PWATs around 2", well above average for mid-May). The current forecast calls for a widespread half inch to inch of needed rainfall, although some guidance suggest 1-2" in a reasonable worst-case scenario. Warm front lifts across the region on Wednesday, putting ENC firmly in the warm sector. More typical summer-time precipitation pattern returns at the point, with slightly drier column but thunderstorms possible along developing sea breeze boundaries. Thursday...Typical summertime pattern remains through the end of the week with daily chances of showers and storms with temperatures trending back above average. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday Afternoon/... As of 3 PM Fri...VFR conditions are present this afternoon across the airspace, and are expected to prevail through the TAF period. The only exception to this will be in and around scattered convection this afternoon through early tonight where periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible as a cold front moves through ENC. Ceilings will mainly range from 3500-5000 ft this afternoon through early tonight, and skies should clear from north to south overnight (aside from some high based clouds). Nice flying conditions continue tomorrow morning with light northerly winds. LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Friday...VFR conditions expected Sat night and Sun as high pressure wedges into the Carolinas from the north, although risk of showers lingers along the southern coast. Overrunning moisture will keep skies mainly cloudy, especially Sunday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday night into Tuesday bringing sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 3 PM Fri...Ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening winds will be primarily 10-20 kts out of the SW, with seas 2-4 ft. Behind the front tonight winds will shift sharply to the N at 15-20 kts with a couple hour period of 25 kt gusts possible. Currently, this does not look to be strong enough or widespread enough to warrant any SCA issuance. Seas could briefly touch 6 ft over the outer waters, but will be mostly 3-5 ft overnight. Tomorrow winds will be N at 10-15 kts in the morning and then veer to the NE/E in the afternoon at 5-15 kts, while seas subside to 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Friday...Main periods of concern for marine interests will be Monday through Tuesday as deepening low pressure lifts a warm front across the waters, with SE winds of 15-25 kt, peaking Tues aft and seas building to 5-7 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...SGK/MS MARINE...SGK/MS