ACUS11 KWNS 210837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210836
SCZ000-GAZ000-211000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...central into eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210836Z - 211000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the southeast
will generally continue to weaken this morning. However a brief wind
threat or QLCS-like tornado threat may persist in the short term,
before weakening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move
east-southeast across eastern Alabama and central Georgia this
morning. These thunderstorms have generally been on a weakening
trend since late Tuesday evening. However, the environment remains
strongly sheared and buoyant this morning, which supports at least
episodic thunderstorm intensity pulses capable of producing sporadic
wind damage. Additionally, 0-500 meter shear is in excess of 30
knots with 0-500 meter SRH around 300 m2/s2. This kind of low-level
environment will support at least short-term threat of brief, QLCS
tornadoes -- especially with any stronger thunderstorm core-boundary
interactions.

The overall large-scale forcing is generally weaker this morning
with south extent. The current thinking is that the ongoing Georgia
thunderstorms should weaken with the severe risk becoming
increasingly localized as the thunderstorms become more displaced
from the stronger forcing. A new watch is not expected.

..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   33558436 33938334 33738221 33158172 32298198 32118325
            32758437 33278454 33558436

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN